Recent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance points to a high near 76–80°F in Los Angeles on September 19, driven by a stable subtropical ridge, light southwest winds, and gradual clearing of the marine layer by midday. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with afternoon temperatures hinging on the precise timing of fog dissipation and local elevation effects between coastal and inland sites. This consensus has anchored the 76–77°F bin as the market favorite at 53% implied probability, while 78–79°F holds secondary support amid minor warming signals in some runs. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution, keeping lower and higher bins at low single-digit odds. Updated model cycles and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on September 19?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 19?
76-77°F 53%
78-79°F 31%
74-75°F 14%
80-81°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
53%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
7%
86°F or higher
4%
76-77°F 53%
78-79°F 31%
74-75°F 14%
80-81°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
67°F or below
$10 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$10 Vol.
6%
70-71°F
$20 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$45 Vol.
14%
76-77°F
$52 Vol.
53%
78-79°F
$121 Vol.
31%
80-81°F
$20 Vol.
11%
82-83°F
$40 Vol.
8%
84-85°F
$20 Vol.
7%
86°F or higher
$10 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance points to a high near 76–80°F in Los Angeles on September 19, driven by a stable subtropical ridge, light southwest winds, and gradual clearing of the marine layer by midday. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with afternoon temperatures hinging on the precise timing of fog dissipation and local elevation effects between coastal and inland sites. This consensus has anchored the 76–77°F bin as the market favorite at 53% implied probability, while 78–79°F holds secondary support amid minor warming signals in some runs. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution, keeping lower and higher bins at low single-digit odds. Updated model cycles and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$368End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance points to a high near 76–80°F in Los Angeles on September 19, driven by a stable subtropical ridge, light southwest winds, and gradual clearing of the marine layer by midday. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with afternoon temperatures hinging on the precise timing of fog dissipation and local elevation effects between coastal and inland sites. This consensus has anchored the 76–77°F bin as the market favorite at 53% implied probability, while 78–79°F holds secondary support amid minor warming signals in some runs. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution, keeping lower and higher bins at low single-digit odds. Updated model cycles and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$368End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance points to a high near 76–80°F in Los Angeles on September 19, driven by a stable subtropical ridge, light southwest winds, and gradual clearing of the marine layer by midday. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with afternoon temperatures hinging on the precise timing of fog dissipation and local elevation effects between coastal and inland sites. This consensus has anchored the 76–77°F bin as the market favorite at 53% implied probability, while 78–79°F holds secondary support amid minor warming signals in some runs. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution, keeping lower and higher bins at low single-digit odds. Updated model cycles and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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