Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the ECMWF and GFS point to a frontal passage over Warsaw on September 17 that will bring increased cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and westerly winds, limiting daytime radiative heating after a sunnier, warmer September 16. This setup favors a daily maximum near 18°C, with ensemble spreads showing sensitivity to the exact timing and intensity of showers that could cap the peak a degree lower or allow brief clearing for a 19°C reading. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 38% and 32.5% implied probabilities for 18°C and 19°C captures this narrow forecast uncertainty, while lower-probability outcomes below 17°C or at 20°C+ would require larger deviations in precipitation timing or model bias than currently indicated by the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
19°C 39%
18°C 38%
21°C 14%
17°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
4%
15°C
5%
16°C
7%
17°C
11%
18°C
38%
19°C
39%
20°C
10%
21°C
14%
22°C or higher
<1%
19°C 39%
18°C 38%
21°C 14%
17°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
$311 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
4%
15°C
$0 Vol.
5%
16°C
$0 Vol.
7%
17°C
$78 Vol.
11%
18°C
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$123 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
10%
21°C
$0 Vol.
14%
22°C or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the ECMWF and GFS point to a frontal passage over Warsaw on September 17 that will bring increased cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and westerly winds, limiting daytime radiative heating after a sunnier, warmer September 16. This setup favors a daily maximum near 18°C, with ensemble spreads showing sensitivity to the exact timing and intensity of showers that could cap the peak a degree lower or allow brief clearing for a 19°C reading. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 38% and 32.5% implied probabilities for 18°C and 19°C captures this narrow forecast uncertainty, while lower-probability outcomes below 17°C or at 20°C+ would require larger deviations in precipitation timing or model bias than currently indicated by the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$739End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the ECMWF and GFS point to a frontal passage over Warsaw on September 17 that will bring increased cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and westerly winds, limiting daytime radiative heating after a sunnier, warmer September 16. This setup favors a daily maximum near 18°C, with ensemble spreads showing sensitivity to the exact timing and intensity of showers that could cap the peak a degree lower or allow brief clearing for a 19°C reading. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 38% and 32.5% implied probabilities for 18°C and 19°C captures this narrow forecast uncertainty, while lower-probability outcomes below 17°C or at 20°C+ would require larger deviations in precipitation timing or model bias than currently indicated by the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$739End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the ECMWF and GFS point to a frontal passage over Warsaw on September 17 that will bring increased cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and westerly winds, limiting daytime radiative heating after a sunnier, warmer September 16. This setup favors a daily maximum near 18°C, with ensemble spreads showing sensitivity to the exact timing and intensity of showers that could cap the peak a degree lower or allow brief clearing for a 19°C reading. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 38% and 32.5% implied probabilities for 18°C and 19°C captures this narrow forecast uncertainty, while lower-probability outcomes below 17°C or at 20°C+ would require larger deviations in precipitation timing or model bias than currently indicated by the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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