**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models place Warsaw's September 16 maximum near 24–25 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** Afternoon surface heating, combined with light winds of 10–15 km/h, supports modest warming above the seasonal average of roughly 18–20 °C, while overnight model runs show only minor spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could trim or add 1 °C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range, with 24 °C and 25 °C dominating implied probabilities because resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported by Polish meteorological stations. Updated high-resolution guidance and morning observations will provide the final calibration before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 16?
24°C 50%
25°C 43%
26°C 7%
23°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
50%
25°C
43%
26°C
7%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
1%
24°C 50%
25°C 43%
26°C 7%
23°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
$1,161 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$278 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$22 Vol.
2%
23°C
$1,416 Vol.
4%
24°C
$1,827 Vol.
50%
25°C
$2,501 Vol.
43%
26°C
$853 Vol.
7%
27°C
$278 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$368 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$872 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models place Warsaw's September 16 maximum near 24–25 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** Afternoon surface heating, combined with light winds of 10–15 km/h, supports modest warming above the seasonal average of roughly 18–20 °C, while overnight model runs show only minor spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could trim or add 1 °C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range, with 24 °C and 25 °C dominating implied probabilities because resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported by Polish meteorological stations. Updated high-resolution guidance and morning observations will provide the final calibration before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,776End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models place Warsaw's September 16 maximum near 24–25 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** Afternoon surface heating, combined with light winds of 10–15 km/h, supports modest warming above the seasonal average of roughly 18–20 °C, while overnight model runs show only minor spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could trim or add 1 °C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range, with 24 °C and 25 °C dominating implied probabilities because resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported by Polish meteorological stations. Updated high-resolution guidance and morning observations will provide the final calibration before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,776End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models place Warsaw's September 16 maximum near 24–25 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** Afternoon surface heating, combined with light winds of 10–15 km/h, supports modest warming above the seasonal average of roughly 18–20 °C, while overnight model runs show only minor spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could trim or add 1 °C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range, with 24 °C and 25 °C dominating implied probabilities because resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported by Polish meteorological stations. Updated high-resolution guidance and morning observations will provide the final calibration before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions