Forecast models for Warsaw on September 15 show afternoon highs clustered near 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, with morning fog or low stratus potentially limiting daytime heating. Recent runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate modest warm advection from the west amid stable high pressure near 1020 hPa, yet differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread between 19°C and 20°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh these variables against climatological norms for mid-September, where partial clearing could push readings toward the upper end of the range while persistent overcast favors the lower. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 15?
20°C 39%
19°C 34%
18°C 14%
21°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
15°C or below
3%
16°C
4%
17°C
5%
18°C
14%
19°C
34%
20°C
39%
21°C
9%
22°C
5%
23°C
3%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 39%
19°C 34%
18°C 14%
21°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
15°C or below
$10 Vol.
3%
16°C
$10 Vol.
4%
17°C
$0 Vol.
5%
18°C
$27 Vol.
14%
19°C
$100 Vol.
34%
20°C
$26 Vol.
39%
21°C
$32 Vol.
9%
22°C
$20 Vol.
5%
23°C
$18 Vol.
3%
24°C
$10 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Warsaw on September 15 show afternoon highs clustered near 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, with morning fog or low stratus potentially limiting daytime heating. Recent runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate modest warm advection from the west amid stable high pressure near 1020 hPa, yet differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread between 19°C and 20°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh these variables against climatological norms for mid-September, where partial clearing could push readings toward the upper end of the range while persistent overcast favors the lower. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$263End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Warsaw on September 15 show afternoon highs clustered near 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, with morning fog or low stratus potentially limiting daytime heating. Recent runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate modest warm advection from the west amid stable high pressure near 1020 hPa, yet differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread between 19°C and 20°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh these variables against climatological norms for mid-September, where partial clearing could push readings toward the upper end of the range while persistent overcast favors the lower. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$263End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for Warsaw on September 15 show afternoon highs clustered near 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, with morning fog or low stratus potentially limiting daytime heating. Recent runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate modest warm advection from the west amid stable high pressure near 1020 hPa, yet differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread between 19°C and 20°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh these variables against climatological norms for mid-September, where partial clearing could push readings toward the upper end of the range while persistent overcast favors the lower. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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