Recent official forecasts from sources such as GFS model runs and agencies including the Polish Institute of Meteorology indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 13 centered on 20–21°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light southwesterly winds. These conditions align with seasonal September norms of roughly 16–20°C highs and explain the market-implied odds favoring 20°C at 46.5% and 21°C at 30.5%. Limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and stable atmospheric pressure near 1020 hPa reduce the likelihood of significant deviations, while model consensus shows minimal spread for this short-range outlook. Updated guidance released on September 12 reinforces this range ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 13?
20°C 53%
21°C 26%
19°C 20%
18°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
20%
20°C
53%
21°C
26%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
20°C 53%
21°C 26%
19°C 20%
18°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
14°C or below
$67 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$47 Vol.
1%
18°C
$182 Vol.
2%
19°C
$737 Vol.
20%
20°C
$1,246 Vol.
53%
21°C
$1,325 Vol.
26%
22°C
$301 Vol.
2%
23°C
$115 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$285 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources such as GFS model runs and agencies including the Polish Institute of Meteorology indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 13 centered on 20–21°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light southwesterly winds. These conditions align with seasonal September norms of roughly 16–20°C highs and explain the market-implied odds favoring 20°C at 46.5% and 21°C at 30.5%. Limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and stable atmospheric pressure near 1020 hPa reduce the likelihood of significant deviations, while model consensus shows minimal spread for this short-range outlook. Updated guidance released on September 12 reinforces this range ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,575End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources such as GFS model runs and agencies including the Polish Institute of Meteorology indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 13 centered on 20–21°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light southwesterly winds. These conditions align with seasonal September norms of roughly 16–20°C highs and explain the market-implied odds favoring 20°C at 46.5% and 21°C at 30.5%. Limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and stable atmospheric pressure near 1020 hPa reduce the likelihood of significant deviations, while model consensus shows minimal spread for this short-range outlook. Updated guidance released on September 12 reinforces this range ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,575End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources such as GFS model runs and agencies including the Polish Institute of Meteorology indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 13 centered on 20–21°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light southwesterly winds. These conditions align with seasonal September norms of roughly 16–20°C highs and explain the market-implied odds favoring 20°C at 46.5% and 21°C at 30.5%. Limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and stable atmospheric pressure near 1020 hPa reduce the likelihood of significant deviations, while model consensus shows minimal spread for this short-range outlook. Updated guidance released on September 12 reinforces this range ahead of the daily maximum observation used for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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