Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on September 12 in the 18–20°C range, with 19°C holding the highest market-implied probability due to expected moderate westerly flow and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy conditions. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any weak frontal boundary, which could enhance or suppress maximum readings by 1–2°C through changes in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, alongside soil moisture and radiative effects from recent rainfall patterns. Historical September climatology for the region shows similar variability around 19°C averages. Updated high-resolution runs from ECMWF and GFS later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 12?
19°C 39%
20°C 33%
18°C 18%
17°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
15°C or below
4%
16°C
5%
17°C
14%
18°C
18%
19°C
39%
20°C
33%
21°C
9%
22°C
6%
23°C
4%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
2%
19°C 39%
20°C 33%
18°C 18%
17°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
16°C
$0 Vol.
5%
17°C
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$7 Vol.
39%
20°C
$20 Vol.
33%
21°C
$0 Vol.
9%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on September 12 in the 18–20°C range, with 19°C holding the highest market-implied probability due to expected moderate westerly flow and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy conditions. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any weak frontal boundary, which could enhance or suppress maximum readings by 1–2°C through changes in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, alongside soil moisture and radiative effects from recent rainfall patterns. Historical September climatology for the region shows similar variability around 19°C averages. Updated high-resolution runs from ECMWF and GFS later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on September 12 in the 18–20°C range, with 19°C holding the highest market-implied probability due to expected moderate westerly flow and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy conditions. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any weak frontal boundary, which could enhance or suppress maximum readings by 1–2°C through changes in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, alongside soil moisture and radiative effects from recent rainfall patterns. Historical September climatology for the region shows similar variability around 19°C averages. Updated high-resolution runs from ECMWF and GFS later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Warsaw's peak temperature on September 12 in the 18–20°C range, with 19°C holding the highest market-implied probability due to expected moderate westerly flow and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy conditions. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any weak frontal boundary, which could enhance or suppress maximum readings by 1–2°C through changes in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, alongside soil moisture and radiative effects from recent rainfall patterns. Historical September climatology for the region shows similar variability around 19°C averages. Updated high-resolution runs from ECMWF and GFS later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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