Forecast models from sources including NOAA-aligned guidance and European ensembles indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 11 of 17–19 °C, with 18 °C and 19 °C emerging as the most probable outcomes. A cold front and associated rainfall on September 10 have advected cooler maritime air behind it, suppressing daytime heating after a recent warm spell that reached 28–29 °C. Persistent cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and high pressure building in will limit surface insolation and vertical mixing, keeping the daily high modest for mid-September. Minor model differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture create the narrow spread between 18 °C and 19 °C, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher remain low absent unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 11?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 11?
18°C 38%
19°C 37%
17°C 30%
16°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
4%
15°C
4%
16°C
9%
17°C
30%
18°C
38%
19°C
37%
20°C
9%
21°C
9%
22°C
6%
23°C
4%
24°C or higher
4%
18°C 38%
19°C 37%
17°C 30%
16°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
15°C
$0 Vol.
4%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$35 Vol.
38%
19°C
$63 Vol.
37%
20°C
$28 Vol.
9%
21°C
$11 Vol.
9%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including NOAA-aligned guidance and European ensembles indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 11 of 17–19 °C, with 18 °C and 19 °C emerging as the most probable outcomes. A cold front and associated rainfall on September 10 have advected cooler maritime air behind it, suppressing daytime heating after a recent warm spell that reached 28–29 °C. Persistent cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and high pressure building in will limit surface insolation and vertical mixing, keeping the daily high modest for mid-September. Minor model differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture create the narrow spread between 18 °C and 19 °C, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher remain low absent unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$137End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including NOAA-aligned guidance and European ensembles indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 11 of 17–19 °C, with 18 °C and 19 °C emerging as the most probable outcomes. A cold front and associated rainfall on September 10 have advected cooler maritime air behind it, suppressing daytime heating after a recent warm spell that reached 28–29 °C. Persistent cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and high pressure building in will limit surface insolation and vertical mixing, keeping the daily high modest for mid-September. Minor model differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture create the narrow spread between 18 °C and 19 °C, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher remain low absent unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$137End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including NOAA-aligned guidance and European ensembles indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 11 of 17–19 °C, with 18 °C and 19 °C emerging as the most probable outcomes. A cold front and associated rainfall on September 10 have advected cooler maritime air behind it, suppressing daytime heating after a recent warm spell that reached 28–29 °C. Persistent cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and high pressure building in will limit surface insolation and vertical mixing, keeping the daily high modest for mid-September. Minor model differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture create the narrow spread between 18 °C and 19 °C, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher remain low absent unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions