Persistent southwest monsoon rains and extensive cloud cover are capping daytime heating in Manila, keeping official forecasts centered on highs of 28–30°C for September 11 amid scattered thunderstorms. Recent PAGASA observations show maxima near 29.7°C under similar conditions, while ensemble guidance indicates limited insolation and evaporative cooling from frequent showers will likely prevent readings from reaching 32°C or higher. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30°C and 31°C because brief breaks in cloudiness could allow brief spikes, yet the overall pattern favors values near the long-term September average of roughly 30–31°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 11?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 11?
30°C 35%
31°C 26%
29°C 15%
32°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
11%
29°C
15%
30°C
35%
31°C
26%
32°C
15%
33°C
9%
34°C or higher
9%
30°C 35%
31°C 26%
29°C 15%
32°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
$205 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$267 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$32 Vol.
6%
28°C
$20 Vol.
11%
29°C
$33 Vol.
15%
30°C
$235 Vol.
35%
31°C
$7 Vol.
26%
32°C
$0 Vol.
15%
33°C
$0 Vol.
9%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon rains and extensive cloud cover are capping daytime heating in Manila, keeping official forecasts centered on highs of 28–30°C for September 11 amid scattered thunderstorms. Recent PAGASA observations show maxima near 29.7°C under similar conditions, while ensemble guidance indicates limited insolation and evaporative cooling from frequent showers will likely prevent readings from reaching 32°C or higher. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30°C and 31°C because brief breaks in cloudiness could allow brief spikes, yet the overall pattern favors values near the long-term September average of roughly 30–31°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$798End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon rains and extensive cloud cover are capping daytime heating in Manila, keeping official forecasts centered on highs of 28–30°C for September 11 amid scattered thunderstorms. Recent PAGASA observations show maxima near 29.7°C under similar conditions, while ensemble guidance indicates limited insolation and evaporative cooling from frequent showers will likely prevent readings from reaching 32°C or higher. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30°C and 31°C because brief breaks in cloudiness could allow brief spikes, yet the overall pattern favors values near the long-term September average of roughly 30–31°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$798End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon rains and extensive cloud cover are capping daytime heating in Manila, keeping official forecasts centered on highs of 28–30°C for September 11 amid scattered thunderstorms. Recent PAGASA observations show maxima near 29.7°C under similar conditions, while ensemble guidance indicates limited insolation and evaporative cooling from frequent showers will likely prevent readings from reaching 32°C or higher. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30°C and 31°C because brief breaks in cloudiness could allow brief spikes, yet the overall pattern favors values near the long-term September average of roughly 30–31°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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