Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate overnight lows near 70-73°F in New York City on September 17, driven by a persistent warm, humid southerly airflow and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This setup, with dew points in the upper 60s and light winds, supports the closely matched market-implied odds for 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins. Minor differences hinge on exact timing of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which could allow slightly more cooling toward 68-69°F or hold temperatures higher. Historical September averages near 61°F highlight the anomaly from the current pattern, with traders weighing model consensus against potential last-minute shifts in steering flow before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 17?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 17?
70-71°F 43%
72-73°F 32%
68-69°F 17%
64-65°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 43%
72-73°F 32%
68-69°F 17%
64-65°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
61°F or below
$164 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
14%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
15%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
13%
68-69°F
$139 Vol.
17%
70-71°F
$262 Vol.
31%
72-73°F
$162 Vol.
32%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
1%
80°F or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate overnight lows near 70-73°F in New York City on September 17, driven by a persistent warm, humid southerly airflow and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This setup, with dew points in the upper 60s and light winds, supports the closely matched market-implied odds for 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins. Minor differences hinge on exact timing of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which could allow slightly more cooling toward 68-69°F or hold temperatures higher. Historical September averages near 61°F highlight the anomaly from the current pattern, with traders weighing model consensus against potential last-minute shifts in steering flow before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$773End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate overnight lows near 70-73°F in New York City on September 17, driven by a persistent warm, humid southerly airflow and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This setup, with dew points in the upper 60s and light winds, supports the closely matched market-implied odds for 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins. Minor differences hinge on exact timing of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which could allow slightly more cooling toward 68-69°F or hold temperatures higher. Historical September averages near 61°F highlight the anomaly from the current pattern, with traders weighing model consensus against potential last-minute shifts in steering flow before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$773End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate overnight lows near 70-73°F in New York City on September 17, driven by a persistent warm, humid southerly airflow and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This setup, with dew points in the upper 60s and light winds, supports the closely matched market-implied odds for 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins. Minor differences hinge on exact timing of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which could allow slightly more cooling toward 68-69°F or hold temperatures higher. Historical September averages near 61°F highlight the anomaly from the current pattern, with traders weighing model consensus against potential last-minute shifts in steering flow before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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