**Official National Weather Service guidance for September 15 points to a high near 72°F under mostly sunny skies with light southwest winds, consistent with the long-term average high of 70.8°F for the date.** San Francisco’s marine climate keeps temperatures moderated by Pacific onshore flow and the typical mid-September marine layer, limiting afternoon warming even as interior areas trend warmer. Recent model runs show minor spread—some projecting 66–68°F with more cloud cover or stronger breezes, others 73–74°F if the marine influence weakens—explaining why the market clusters tightly around the 68–73°F outcomes with no single bin exceeding 28%. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at downtown or airport stations, with any late-day clearing or wind shift able to nudge the final reading across bin boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 15?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 15?
70-71°F 31%
68-69°F 30%
66-67°F 21%
72-73°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
63°F or below
10%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
21%
68-69°F
30%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
4%
82°F or higher
4%
70-71°F 31%
68-69°F 30%
66-67°F 21%
72-73°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
63°F or below
$0 Vol.
10%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
17%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
21%
68-69°F
$9 Vol.
30%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
31%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
13%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
14%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
7%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
4%
82°F or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service guidance for September 15 points to a high near 72°F under mostly sunny skies with light southwest winds, consistent with the long-term average high of 70.8°F for the date.** San Francisco’s marine climate keeps temperatures moderated by Pacific onshore flow and the typical mid-September marine layer, limiting afternoon warming even as interior areas trend warmer. Recent model runs show minor spread—some projecting 66–68°F with more cloud cover or stronger breezes, others 73–74°F if the marine influence weakens—explaining why the market clusters tightly around the 68–73°F outcomes with no single bin exceeding 28%. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at downtown or airport stations, with any late-day clearing or wind shift able to nudge the final reading across bin boundaries.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$29End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service guidance for September 15 points to a high near 72°F under mostly sunny skies with light southwest winds, consistent with the long-term average high of 70.8°F for the date.** San Francisco’s marine climate keeps temperatures moderated by Pacific onshore flow and the typical mid-September marine layer, limiting afternoon warming even as interior areas trend warmer. Recent model runs show minor spread—some projecting 66–68°F with more cloud cover or stronger breezes, others 73–74°F if the marine influence weakens—explaining why the market clusters tightly around the 68–73°F outcomes with no single bin exceeding 28%. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at downtown or airport stations, with any late-day clearing or wind shift able to nudge the final reading across bin boundaries.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service guidance for September 15 points to a high near 72°F under mostly sunny skies with light southwest winds, consistent with the long-term average high of 70.8°F for the date.** San Francisco’s marine climate keeps temperatures moderated by Pacific onshore flow and the typical mid-September marine layer, limiting afternoon warming even as interior areas trend warmer. Recent model runs show minor spread—some projecting 66–68°F with more cloud cover or stronger breezes, others 73–74°F if the marine influence weakens—explaining why the market clusters tightly around the 68–73°F outcomes with no single bin exceeding 28%. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at downtown or airport stations, with any late-day clearing or wind shift able to nudge the final reading across bin boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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