Current forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private ensembles indicate overnight lows in San Francisco on September 15 will likely settle in the mid to upper 50s, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial marine layer influence, and limited radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Coastal upwelling maintains cool Pacific sea surface temperatures near 58–60°F, suppressing extreme warmth while typical September onshore winds limit fog depth that could otherwise trap heat or enhance cooling. Historical climatology shows an average low of 55.9°F with a record low of 51°F, placing recent model consensus near the 58–59°F bin favored by traders. Uncertainty stems from evolving upper-level trough positioning and wind shifts that could alter boundary layer mixing or allow clearer conditions for greater overnight drops, with fresh NWS and global model updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 15?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 15?
68°F or higher 83%
49°F or below 80%
58-59°F 48%
60-61°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
49°F or below
80%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
39%
54-55°F
21%
56-57°F
20%
58-59°F
43%
60-61°F
40%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
39%
66-67°F
39%
68°F or higher
83%
68°F or higher 83%
49°F or below 80%
58-59°F 48%
60-61°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
80%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
39%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
21%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
20%
58-59°F
$47 Vol.
43%
60-61°F
$40 Vol.
40%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
39%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
39%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private ensembles indicate overnight lows in San Francisco on September 15 will likely settle in the mid to upper 50s, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial marine layer influence, and limited radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Coastal upwelling maintains cool Pacific sea surface temperatures near 58–60°F, suppressing extreme warmth while typical September onshore winds limit fog depth that could otherwise trap heat or enhance cooling. Historical climatology shows an average low of 55.9°F with a record low of 51°F, placing recent model consensus near the 58–59°F bin favored by traders. Uncertainty stems from evolving upper-level trough positioning and wind shifts that could alter boundary layer mixing or allow clearer conditions for greater overnight drops, with fresh NWS and global model updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$87End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private ensembles indicate overnight lows in San Francisco on September 15 will likely settle in the mid to upper 50s, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial marine layer influence, and limited radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Coastal upwelling maintains cool Pacific sea surface temperatures near 58–60°F, suppressing extreme warmth while typical September onshore winds limit fog depth that could otherwise trap heat or enhance cooling. Historical climatology shows an average low of 55.9°F with a record low of 51°F, placing recent model consensus near the 58–59°F bin favored by traders. Uncertainty stems from evolving upper-level trough positioning and wind shifts that could alter boundary layer mixing or allow clearer conditions for greater overnight drops, with fresh NWS and global model updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$87End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private ensembles indicate overnight lows in San Francisco on September 15 will likely settle in the mid to upper 50s, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial marine layer influence, and limited radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Coastal upwelling maintains cool Pacific sea surface temperatures near 58–60°F, suppressing extreme warmth while typical September onshore winds limit fog depth that could otherwise trap heat or enhance cooling. Historical climatology shows an average low of 55.9°F with a record low of 51°F, placing recent model consensus near the 58–59°F bin favored by traders. Uncertainty stems from evolving upper-level trough positioning and wind shifts that could alter boundary layer mixing or allow clearer conditions for greater overnight drops, with fresh NWS and global model updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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