Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Los Angeles on September 15 points to a classic early-fall marine layer pattern, with morning low clouds and fog giving way to partial clearing under southwest winds near 10-15 mph. This setup favors afternoon highs clustering in the mid to upper 70s at coastal and airport locations, aligning with the market's leading 76-77°F and 78-79°F bins. Subtle differences among outcomes hinge on the precise timing of marine layer dissipation, local wind strength, and how much inland heating reaches downtown or valley-adjacent stations versus the immediate coast. Historical September averages near 76°F and the absence of strong offshore flow or high-pressure amplification support the tight distribution of trader-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on September 15?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 15?
76-77°F 36%
78-79°F 35%
80-81°F 24%
82-83°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
67°F or below
6%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
36%
78-79°F
35%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
14%
86°F or higher
14%
76-77°F 36%
78-79°F 35%
80-81°F 24%
82-83°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
67°F or below
$5 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$5 Vol.
2%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$631 Vol.
12%
76-77°F
$915 Vol.
36%
78-79°F
$207 Vol.
35%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
24%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
16%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
14%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Los Angeles on September 15 points to a classic early-fall marine layer pattern, with morning low clouds and fog giving way to partial clearing under southwest winds near 10-15 mph. This setup favors afternoon highs clustering in the mid to upper 70s at coastal and airport locations, aligning with the market's leading 76-77°F and 78-79°F bins. Subtle differences among outcomes hinge on the precise timing of marine layer dissipation, local wind strength, and how much inland heating reaches downtown or valley-adjacent stations versus the immediate coast. Historical September averages near 76°F and the absence of strong offshore flow or high-pressure amplification support the tight distribution of trader-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$1,763End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Los Angeles on September 15 points to a classic early-fall marine layer pattern, with morning low clouds and fog giving way to partial clearing under southwest winds near 10-15 mph. This setup favors afternoon highs clustering in the mid to upper 70s at coastal and airport locations, aligning with the market's leading 76-77°F and 78-79°F bins. Subtle differences among outcomes hinge on the precise timing of marine layer dissipation, local wind strength, and how much inland heating reaches downtown or valley-adjacent stations versus the immediate coast. Historical September averages near 76°F and the absence of strong offshore flow or high-pressure amplification support the tight distribution of trader-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,763End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Los Angeles on September 15 points to a classic early-fall marine layer pattern, with morning low clouds and fog giving way to partial clearing under southwest winds near 10-15 mph. This setup favors afternoon highs clustering in the mid to upper 70s at coastal and airport locations, aligning with the market's leading 76-77°F and 78-79°F bins. Subtle differences among outcomes hinge on the precise timing of marine layer dissipation, local wind strength, and how much inland heating reaches downtown or valley-adjacent stations versus the immediate coast. Historical September averages near 76°F and the absence of strong offshore flow or high-pressure amplification support the tight distribution of trader-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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