Traders have converged on 31°C as the certain outcome for Beijing’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, 2026, reflecting real-time official forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models showing a peak near that threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon readings are projected to reach 30–31°C after a morning low around 19°C, consistent with the current warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.3°C. With resolution imminent and no significant frontal systems or precipitation expected to alter readings, market-implied odds reflect near-certainty based on verified observational data. A modest shift in measured peak—due to microclimate variation at the official station or late-day cooling—remains the only realistic scenario that could reopen lower or higher bins before final confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 16?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 16?
31°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$57,218 Vol.
$57,218 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$57,218 Vol.
$57,218 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
27°C or below
$2,727 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,276 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,037 Vol.
No
30°C
$14,276 Vol.
No
31°C
$9,468 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$10,115 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,188 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,584 Vol.
No
35°C
$721 Vol.
No
36°C
$287 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$537 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 31°C as the certain outcome for Beijing’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, 2026, reflecting real-time official forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models showing a peak near that threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon readings are projected to reach 30–31°C after a morning low around 19°C, consistent with the current warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.3°C. With resolution imminent and no significant frontal systems or precipitation expected to alter readings, market-implied odds reflect near-certainty based on verified observational data. A modest shift in measured peak—due to microclimate variation at the official station or late-day cooling—remains the only realistic scenario that could reopen lower or higher bins before final confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$57,218End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 31°C as the certain outcome for Beijing’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, 2026, reflecting real-time official forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models showing a peak near that threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon readings are projected to reach 30–31°C after a morning low around 19°C, consistent with the current warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.3°C. With resolution imminent and no significant frontal systems or precipitation expected to alter readings, market-implied odds reflect near-certainty based on verified observational data. A modest shift in measured peak—due to microclimate variation at the official station or late-day cooling—remains the only realistic scenario that could reopen lower or higher bins before final confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$57,218End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on 31°C as the certain outcome for Beijing’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, 2026, reflecting real-time official forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models showing a peak near that threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon readings are projected to reach 30–31°C after a morning low around 19°C, consistent with the current warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.3°C. With resolution imminent and no significant frontal systems or precipitation expected to alter readings, market-implied odds reflect near-certainty based on verified observational data. A modest shift in measured peak—due to microclimate variation at the official station or late-day cooling—remains the only realistic scenario that could reopen lower or higher bins before final confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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