Recent numerical weather prediction runs from global models show Beijing's overnight low on September 17 stabilizing near 19°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and modest radiative cooling. This places the outcome squarely between the closely matched market-implied ranges of 14°C or below and 24°C or higher, reflecting genuine forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing rather than strong consensus on extremes. Persistent warm advection from the south has kept temperatures above the 15.7°C climatological average, while any unexpected clear-sky window or northerly shift could nudge readings lower before official China Meteorological Administration verification. Updated model cycles and local observations over the next 48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift decisively.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 17?
24°C or higher 86%
14°C or below 73%
16°C 40%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
14°C or below
73%
15°C
39%
16°C
40%
17°C
27%
18°C
25%
19°C
7%
20°C
6%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C or higher
86%
24°C or higher 86%
14°C or below 73%
16°C 40%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
73%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$98 Vol.
7%
20°C
$132 Vol.
6%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from global models show Beijing's overnight low on September 17 stabilizing near 19°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and modest radiative cooling. This places the outcome squarely between the closely matched market-implied ranges of 14°C or below and 24°C or higher, reflecting genuine forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing rather than strong consensus on extremes. Persistent warm advection from the south has kept temperatures above the 15.7°C climatological average, while any unexpected clear-sky window or northerly shift could nudge readings lower before official China Meteorological Administration verification. Updated model cycles and local observations over the next 48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift decisively.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$41End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from global models show Beijing's overnight low on September 17 stabilizing near 19°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and modest radiative cooling. This places the outcome squarely between the closely matched market-implied ranges of 14°C or below and 24°C or higher, reflecting genuine forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing rather than strong consensus on extremes. Persistent warm advection from the south has kept temperatures above the 15.7°C climatological average, while any unexpected clear-sky window or northerly shift could nudge readings lower before official China Meteorological Administration verification. Updated model cycles and local observations over the next 48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift decisively.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from global models show Beijing's overnight low on September 17 stabilizing near 19°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and modest radiative cooling. This places the outcome squarely between the closely matched market-implied ranges of 14°C or below and 24°C or higher, reflecting genuine forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing rather than strong consensus on extremes. Persistent warm advection from the south has kept temperatures above the 15.7°C climatological average, while any unexpected clear-sky window or northerly shift could nudge readings lower before official China Meteorological Administration verification. Updated model cycles and local observations over the next 48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift decisively.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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