Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 88°F for Miami on September 18, driven by persistent easterly flow, elevated Atlantic moisture, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms that increase cloud cover and limit peak heating. This pattern aligns with the late-summer subtropical regime, where daily averages reach 89°F but frequent showers often suppress readings into the upper 80s. Current consensus across forecasts shows stable upper-80s outcomes, with only modest day-to-day variability and no strong ridge or dry-air intrusion expected to push values into the low 90s. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of convective cooling against the chance of brief clearing that could allow a brief spike, keeping 88-89°F as the modal bin while 90-91°F retains secondary support. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine the exact maximum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on September 18?
Highest temperature in Miami on September 18?
88-89°F 42%
90-91°F 30%
86-87°F 17%
92-93°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
42%
90-91°F
30%
92-93°F
7%
94-95°F
2%
96°F or higher
1%
88-89°F 42%
90-91°F 30%
86-87°F 17%
92-93°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
77°F or below
$179 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$127 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$65 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$114 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$215 Vol.
17%
88-89°F
$293 Vol.
42%
90-91°F
$363 Vol.
30%
92-93°F
$148 Vol.
7%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
2%
96°F or higher
$175 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 88°F for Miami on September 18, driven by persistent easterly flow, elevated Atlantic moisture, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms that increase cloud cover and limit peak heating. This pattern aligns with the late-summer subtropical regime, where daily averages reach 89°F but frequent showers often suppress readings into the upper 80s. Current consensus across forecasts shows stable upper-80s outcomes, with only modest day-to-day variability and no strong ridge or dry-air intrusion expected to push values into the low 90s. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of convective cooling against the chance of brief clearing that could allow a brief spike, keeping 88-89°F as the modal bin while 90-91°F retains secondary support. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine the exact maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,680End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 88°F for Miami on September 18, driven by persistent easterly flow, elevated Atlantic moisture, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms that increase cloud cover and limit peak heating. This pattern aligns with the late-summer subtropical regime, where daily averages reach 89°F but frequent showers often suppress readings into the upper 80s. Current consensus across forecasts shows stable upper-80s outcomes, with only modest day-to-day variability and no strong ridge or dry-air intrusion expected to push values into the low 90s. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of convective cooling against the chance of brief clearing that could allow a brief spike, keeping 88-89°F as the modal bin while 90-91°F retains secondary support. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine the exact maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,680End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 88°F for Miami on September 18, driven by persistent easterly flow, elevated Atlantic moisture, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms that increase cloud cover and limit peak heating. This pattern aligns with the late-summer subtropical regime, where daily averages reach 89°F but frequent showers often suppress readings into the upper 80s. Current consensus across forecasts shows stable upper-80s outcomes, with only modest day-to-day variability and no strong ridge or dry-air intrusion expected to push values into the low 90s. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of convective cooling against the chance of brief clearing that could allow a brief spike, keeping 88-89°F as the modal bin while 90-91°F retains secondary support. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine the exact maximum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions