**Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and others converge on a daytime high of 23–25°C for Tokyo on September 17, 2026, with 24°C as the most frequent central estimate.** This aligns with the market’s top probabilities (24°C at 37.5%, 23°C at 25%, 25°C at 23.5%), reflecting trader consensus on limited daytime heating under persistent cloud cover and northerly flow. A cool, moist airmass following recent heavy rain on September 16 has suppressed temperatures, with northerly winds and high humidity (70–90%) reducing solar insolation and keeping the boundary layer stable. Afternoon clearing is expected but likely too late or limited to push readings much above 24–25°C, consistent with mid-September climatology where highs typically fall to 26–28°C but are tempered by frontal or post-rain patterns. Model agreement on modest warming and the narrow 22–26°C range explains the concentrated probabilities; further data from updated JMA or NOAA runs could refine the exact peak if skies clear earlier than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 17?
24°C 39%
23°C 25%
25°C 21%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
8%
23°C
25%
24°C
39%
25°C
21%
26°C
7%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 39%
23°C 25%
25°C 21%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
19°C or below
$92 Vol.
2%
20°C
$136 Vol.
1%
21°C
$266 Vol.
4%
22°C
$306 Vol.
8%
23°C
$489 Vol.
25%
24°C
$1,021 Vol.
39%
25°C
$1,653 Vol.
21%
26°C
$368 Vol.
7%
27°C
$237 Vol.
2%
28°C
$163 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$595 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and others converge on a daytime high of 23–25°C for Tokyo on September 17, 2026, with 24°C as the most frequent central estimate.** This aligns with the market’s top probabilities (24°C at 37.5%, 23°C at 25%, 25°C at 23.5%), reflecting trader consensus on limited daytime heating under persistent cloud cover and northerly flow.
A cool, moist airmass following recent heavy rain on September 16 has suppressed temperatures, with northerly winds and high humidity (70–90%) reducing solar insolation and keeping the boundary layer stable. Afternoon clearing is expected but likely too late or limited to push readings much above 24–25°C, consistent with mid-September climatology where highs typically fall to 26–28°C but are tempered by frontal or post-rain patterns.
Model agreement on modest warming and the narrow 22–26°C range explains the concentrated probabilities; further data from updated JMA or NOAA runs could refine the exact peak if skies clear earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,326End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and others converge on a daytime high of 23–25°C for Tokyo on September 17, 2026, with 24°C as the most frequent central estimate.** This aligns with the market’s top probabilities (24°C at 37.5%, 23°C at 25%, 25°C at 23.5%), reflecting trader consensus on limited daytime heating under persistent cloud cover and northerly flow.
A cool, moist airmass following recent heavy rain on September 16 has suppressed temperatures, with northerly winds and high humidity (70–90%) reducing solar insolation and keeping the boundary layer stable. Afternoon clearing is expected but likely too late or limited to push readings much above 24–25°C, consistent with mid-September climatology where highs typically fall to 26–28°C but are tempered by frontal or post-rain patterns.
Model agreement on modest warming and the narrow 22–26°C range explains the concentrated probabilities; further data from updated JMA or NOAA runs could refine the exact peak if skies clear earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,326End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and others converge on a daytime high of 23–25°C for Tokyo on September 17, 2026, with 24°C as the most frequent central estimate.** This aligns with the market’s top probabilities (24°C at 37.5%, 23°C at 25%, 25°C at 23.5%), reflecting trader consensus on limited daytime heating under persistent cloud cover and northerly flow. A cool, moist airmass following recent heavy rain on September 16 has suppressed temperatures, with northerly winds and high humidity (70–90%) reducing solar insolation and keeping the boundary layer stable. Afternoon clearing is expected but likely too late or limited to push readings much above 24–25°C, consistent with mid-September climatology where highs typically fall to 26–28°C but are tempered by frontal or post-rain patterns. Model agreement on modest warming and the narrow 22–26°C range explains the concentrated probabilities; further data from updated JMA or NOAA runs could refine the exact peak if skies clear earlier than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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