Persistent rain and northerly winds across Tokyo are driving cooler overnight temperatures, with official forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office pointing to a minimum near 19–20°C on September 16 amid widespread cloud cover and showers. Evaporative cooling from steady precipitation, combined with advection of cooler maritime air and minimal daytime solar heating, supports this range over warmer or colder outliers. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns and high humidity maintaining these conditions through the overnight period, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 19–20°C while assigning low odds to extremes below 18°C or above 21°C. Updated forecasts expected later today could refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
20°C 48%
19°C 25%
21°C 23%
17°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
10%
18°C
10%
19°C
25%
20°C
48%
21°C
23%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 48%
19°C 25%
21°C 23%
17°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
16°C or below
$30 Vol.
2%
17°C
$122 Vol.
10%
18°C
$125 Vol.
10%
19°C
$573 Vol.
25%
20°C
$607 Vol.
48%
21°C
$831 Vol.
23%
22°C
$199 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$37 Vol.
1%
25°C
$37 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$188 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds across Tokyo are driving cooler overnight temperatures, with official forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office pointing to a minimum near 19–20°C on September 16 amid widespread cloud cover and showers. Evaporative cooling from steady precipitation, combined with advection of cooler maritime air and minimal daytime solar heating, supports this range over warmer or colder outliers. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns and high humidity maintaining these conditions through the overnight period, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 19–20°C while assigning low odds to extremes below 18°C or above 21°C. Updated forecasts expected later today could refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,751End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds across Tokyo are driving cooler overnight temperatures, with official forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office pointing to a minimum near 19–20°C on September 16 amid widespread cloud cover and showers. Evaporative cooling from steady precipitation, combined with advection of cooler maritime air and minimal daytime solar heating, supports this range over warmer or colder outliers. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns and high humidity maintaining these conditions through the overnight period, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 19–20°C while assigning low odds to extremes below 18°C or above 21°C. Updated forecasts expected later today could refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,751End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northerly winds across Tokyo are driving cooler overnight temperatures, with official forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office pointing to a minimum near 19–20°C on September 16 amid widespread cloud cover and showers. Evaporative cooling from steady precipitation, combined with advection of cooler maritime air and minimal daytime solar heating, supports this range over warmer or colder outliers. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns and high humidity maintaining these conditions through the overnight period, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 19–20°C while assigning low odds to extremes below 18°C or above 21°C. Updated forecasts expected later today could refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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