Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a shift to cloudy, rainy conditions on September 15 that will suppress daytime heating and allow overnight radiative cooling, positioning the minimum temperature near 22–24°C. Persistent southerly flow earlier in the week maintained warmer baselines, but an approaching trough and associated precipitation—expected to reach 60–80% probability—now favor lower readings around dawn. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range, with limited spread reflecting moderate model agreement on timing and moisture. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded at official Tokyo stations amid the unsettled pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
23°C 39%
22°C 32%
24°C 23%
20°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
14%
20°C
16%
21°C
7%
22°C
32%
23°C
39%
24°C
23%
25°C
9%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
2%
23°C 39%
22°C 32%
24°C 23%
20°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
$10 Vol.
14%
20°C
$30 Vol.
16%
21°C
$31 Vol.
7%
22°C
$237 Vol.
32%
23°C
$125 Vol.
39%
24°C
$331 Vol.
23%
25°C
$31 Vol.
9%
26°C
$10 Vol.
2%
27°C
$10 Vol.
2%
28°C
$10 Vol.
2%
29°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a shift to cloudy, rainy conditions on September 15 that will suppress daytime heating and allow overnight radiative cooling, positioning the minimum temperature near 22–24°C. Persistent southerly flow earlier in the week maintained warmer baselines, but an approaching trough and associated precipitation—expected to reach 60–80% probability—now favor lower readings around dawn. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range, with limited spread reflecting moderate model agreement on timing and moisture. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded at official Tokyo stations amid the unsettled pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$836End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a shift to cloudy, rainy conditions on September 15 that will suppress daytime heating and allow overnight radiative cooling, positioning the minimum temperature near 22–24°C. Persistent southerly flow earlier in the week maintained warmer baselines, but an approaching trough and associated precipitation—expected to reach 60–80% probability—now favor lower readings around dawn. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range, with limited spread reflecting moderate model agreement on timing and moisture. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded at official Tokyo stations amid the unsettled pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$836End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a shift to cloudy, rainy conditions on September 15 that will suppress daytime heating and allow overnight radiative cooling, positioning the minimum temperature near 22–24°C. Persistent southerly flow earlier in the week maintained warmer baselines, but an approaching trough and associated precipitation—expected to reach 60–80% probability—now favor lower readings around dawn. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range, with limited spread reflecting moderate model agreement on timing and moisture. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded at official Tokyo stations amid the unsettled pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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