Recent forecast consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency points to an overnight low of 19–20°C in Tokyo on September 17, driven by persistent northerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, high humidity from prior rainfall, and extensive cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted wind speeds and the timing of partial clearing, which could allow slightly more or less cooling. Historical September minima average near 19.6°C, providing context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities at 19°C and 20°C. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will refine the final minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 17?
20°C 40%
19°C 39%
21°C 14%
17°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
11%
18°C
7%
19°C
39%
20°C
40%
21°C
14%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 40%
19°C 39%
21°C 14%
17°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
$25 Vol.
1%
16°C
$25 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
11%
18°C
$140 Vol.
7%
19°C
$178 Vol.
39%
20°C
$381 Vol.
40%
21°C
$30 Vol.
14%
22°C
$0 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$25 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$53 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency points to an overnight low of 19–20°C in Tokyo on September 17, driven by persistent northerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, high humidity from prior rainfall, and extensive cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted wind speeds and the timing of partial clearing, which could allow slightly more or less cooling. Historical September minima average near 19.6°C, providing context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities at 19°C and 20°C. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will refine the final minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$859End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency points to an overnight low of 19–20°C in Tokyo on September 17, driven by persistent northerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, high humidity from prior rainfall, and extensive cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted wind speeds and the timing of partial clearing, which could allow slightly more or less cooling. Historical September minima average near 19.6°C, providing context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities at 19°C and 20°C. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will refine the final minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$859End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency points to an overnight low of 19–20°C in Tokyo on September 17, driven by persistent northerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, high humidity from prior rainfall, and extensive cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted wind speeds and the timing of partial clearing, which could allow slightly more or less cooling. Historical September minima average near 19.6°C, providing context for the closely matched market-implied probabilities at 19°C and 20°C. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will refine the final minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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