Recent model runs indicate a daily maximum near 21–22°C for Warsaw on September 18, with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies limiting further warming after Thursday’s frontal passage and rain. Afternoon temperatures peak when solar heating overcomes increasing low- to mid-level cloud cover, while modest southwesterly winds provide limited warm advection. Differences between 21°C and 22°C outcomes hinge on small variations in cloud fraction, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any breaks in overcast; 23°C would require greater clearing or stronger southerly advection than current guidance supports. Historical September maxima average near 18–20°C, so the current setup sits slightly above climatology but remains sensitive to the next 48-hour model updates from ECMWF and GFS.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
22°C 44%
21°C 39%
23°C 12%
20°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
7%
21°C
39%
22°C
44%
23°C
12%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
2%
22°C 44%
21°C 39%
23°C 12%
20°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
$839 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$133 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$184 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$104 Vol.
1%
19°C
$57 Vol.
2%
20°C
$69 Vol.
7%
21°C
$197 Vol.
39%
22°C
$193 Vol.
44%
23°C
$388 Vol.
12%
24°C
$27 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$205 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs indicate a daily maximum near 21–22°C for Warsaw on September 18, with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies limiting further warming after Thursday’s frontal passage and rain. Afternoon temperatures peak when solar heating overcomes increasing low- to mid-level cloud cover, while modest southwesterly winds provide limited warm advection. Differences between 21°C and 22°C outcomes hinge on small variations in cloud fraction, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any breaks in overcast; 23°C would require greater clearing or stronger southerly advection than current guidance supports. Historical September maxima average near 18–20°C, so the current setup sits slightly above climatology but remains sensitive to the next 48-hour model updates from ECMWF and GFS.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,396End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs indicate a daily maximum near 21–22°C for Warsaw on September 18, with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies limiting further warming after Thursday’s frontal passage and rain. Afternoon temperatures peak when solar heating overcomes increasing low- to mid-level cloud cover, while modest southwesterly winds provide limited warm advection. Differences between 21°C and 22°C outcomes hinge on small variations in cloud fraction, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any breaks in overcast; 23°C would require greater clearing or stronger southerly advection than current guidance supports. Historical September maxima average near 18–20°C, so the current setup sits slightly above climatology but remains sensitive to the next 48-hour model updates from ECMWF and GFS.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,396End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs indicate a daily maximum near 21–22°C for Warsaw on September 18, with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies limiting further warming after Thursday’s frontal passage and rain. Afternoon temperatures peak when solar heating overcomes increasing low- to mid-level cloud cover, while modest southwesterly winds provide limited warm advection. Differences between 21°C and 22°C outcomes hinge on small variations in cloud fraction, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any breaks in overcast; 23°C would require greater clearing or stronger southerly advection than current guidance supports. Historical September maxima average near 18–20°C, so the current setup sits slightly above climatology but remains sensitive to the next 48-hour model updates from ECMWF and GFS.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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