Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a cooler, unsettled air mass arriving over the Netherlands, with Amsterdam expected to see widespread rain, scattered thunderstorms, and westerly winds limiting daytime heating on September 16. High temperatures are projected in the 17–18 °C range under cloudy skies and precipitation, below the September climatological average near 19 °C. This shift follows warmer conditions on the 15th and aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 18–19 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities on 20 °C+ reflect limited upside potential from any model disagreement or brief clearing. Official observations from KNMI or nearby Schiphol will resolve the market once the day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 16?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 16?
19°C 60%
18°C 28%
20°C 11%
17°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
28%
19°C
60%
20°C
11%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 60%
18°C 28%
20°C 11%
17°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
$441 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$444 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$230 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$266 Vol.
2%
17°C
$691 Vol.
4%
18°C
$1,356 Vol.
28%
19°C
$1,566 Vol.
60%
20°C
$1,318 Vol.
11%
21°C
$262 Vol.
1%
22°C
$267 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$409 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a cooler, unsettled air mass arriving over the Netherlands, with Amsterdam expected to see widespread rain, scattered thunderstorms, and westerly winds limiting daytime heating on September 16. High temperatures are projected in the 17–18 °C range under cloudy skies and precipitation, below the September climatological average near 19 °C. This shift follows warmer conditions on the 15th and aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 18–19 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities on 20 °C+ reflect limited upside potential from any model disagreement or brief clearing. Official observations from KNMI or nearby Schiphol will resolve the market once the day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$7,250End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a cooler, unsettled air mass arriving over the Netherlands, with Amsterdam expected to see widespread rain, scattered thunderstorms, and westerly winds limiting daytime heating on September 16. High temperatures are projected in the 17–18 °C range under cloudy skies and precipitation, below the September climatological average near 19 °C. This shift follows warmer conditions on the 15th and aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 18–19 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities on 20 °C+ reflect limited upside potential from any model disagreement or brief clearing. Official observations from KNMI or nearby Schiphol will resolve the market once the day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,250End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a cooler, unsettled air mass arriving over the Netherlands, with Amsterdam expected to see widespread rain, scattered thunderstorms, and westerly winds limiting daytime heating on September 16. High temperatures are projected in the 17–18 °C range under cloudy skies and precipitation, below the September climatological average near 19 °C. This shift follows warmer conditions on the 15th and aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 18–19 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities on 20 °C+ reflect limited upside potential from any model disagreement or brief clearing. Official observations from KNMI or nearby Schiphol will resolve the market once the day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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