Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and national agencies indicate a transition toward cooler, more unsettled conditions over northern Italy by mid-September, with daytime highs in Milan on the 16th most likely peaking between 25–28°C amid light southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and a chance of light rain that could limit solar heating. This range aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26–28°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and the potential for modest daytime warming if skies clear earlier than expected. September climatology places average highs near 22–24°C, but recent days have run several degrees above normal under persistent high pressure, setting up the current uncertainty. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will clarify whether any residual warmth or timing of precipitation shifts the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 16?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 16?
27°C 42%
28°C 36%
26°C 32%
25°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
4%
24°C
7%
25°C
19%
26°C
32%
27°C
42%
28°C
36%
29°C
9%
30°C
3%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 42%
28°C 36%
26°C 32%
25°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
7%
25°C
$0 Vol.
19%
26°C
$0 Vol.
32%
27°C
$55 Vol.
42%
28°C
$0 Vol.
36%
29°C
$0 Vol.
9%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C
$0 Vol.
5%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and national agencies indicate a transition toward cooler, more unsettled conditions over northern Italy by mid-September, with daytime highs in Milan on the 16th most likely peaking between 25–28°C amid light southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and a chance of light rain that could limit solar heating. This range aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26–28°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and the potential for modest daytime warming if skies clear earlier than expected. September climatology places average highs near 22–24°C, but recent days have run several degrees above normal under persistent high pressure, setting up the current uncertainty. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will clarify whether any residual warmth or timing of precipitation shifts the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$55End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and national agencies indicate a transition toward cooler, more unsettled conditions over northern Italy by mid-September, with daytime highs in Milan on the 16th most likely peaking between 25–28°C amid light southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and a chance of light rain that could limit solar heating. This range aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26–28°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and the potential for modest daytime warming if skies clear earlier than expected. September climatology places average highs near 22–24°C, but recent days have run several degrees above normal under persistent high pressure, setting up the current uncertainty. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will clarify whether any residual warmth or timing of precipitation shifts the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and national agencies indicate a transition toward cooler, more unsettled conditions over northern Italy by mid-September, with daytime highs in Milan on the 16th most likely peaking between 25–28°C amid light southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and a chance of light rain that could limit solar heating. This range aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26–28°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and the potential for modest daytime warming if skies clear earlier than expected. September climatology places average highs near 22–24°C, but recent days have run several degrees above normal under persistent high pressure, setting up the current uncertainty. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will clarify whether any residual warmth or timing of precipitation shifts the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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