**Current forecasts for Milan indicate a daily minimum near 19°C on September 16, with highs of 24–27°C under initially stable high pressure.** An incoming low-pressure system and associated thunderstorms—carrying a yellow warning for Lombardy—are expected to increase cloud cover, precipitation, and potentially stronger winds overnight, which could either enhance cooling through evaporative effects or limit radiative heat loss depending on timing and intensity. Model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF shows this transition, but small shifts in storm arrival or cloud thickness introduce meaningful uncertainty around the exact low. This scientific variability in nocturnal boundary-layer processes and precipitation timing explains the closely matched market-implied odds between warmer (23°C+) and cooler (13°C or below) outcomes, with specific probabilities clustering around 18–19°C reflecting the baseline forecast tempered by these dynamic factors. Updated model runs and official Italian meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive further adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 16?
23°C or higher 74%
13°C or below 71%
19°C 40%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
71%
14°C
39%
15°C
25%
16°C
39%
17°C
22%
18°C
28%
19°C
40%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C or higher
74%
23°C or higher 74%
13°C or below 71%
19°C 40%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
71%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Milan indicate a daily minimum near 19°C on September 16, with highs of 24–27°C under initially stable high pressure.** An incoming low-pressure system and associated thunderstorms—carrying a yellow warning for Lombardy—are expected to increase cloud cover, precipitation, and potentially stronger winds overnight, which could either enhance cooling through evaporative effects or limit radiative heat loss depending on timing and intensity. Model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF shows this transition, but small shifts in storm arrival or cloud thickness introduce meaningful uncertainty around the exact low. This scientific variability in nocturnal boundary-layer processes and precipitation timing explains the closely matched market-implied odds between warmer (23°C+) and cooler (13°C or below) outcomes, with specific probabilities clustering around 18–19°C reflecting the baseline forecast tempered by these dynamic factors. Updated model runs and official Italian meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive further adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Milan indicate a daily minimum near 19°C on September 16, with highs of 24–27°C under initially stable high pressure.** An incoming low-pressure system and associated thunderstorms—carrying a yellow warning for Lombardy—are expected to increase cloud cover, precipitation, and potentially stronger winds overnight, which could either enhance cooling through evaporative effects or limit radiative heat loss depending on timing and intensity. Model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF shows this transition, but small shifts in storm arrival or cloud thickness introduce meaningful uncertainty around the exact low. This scientific variability in nocturnal boundary-layer processes and precipitation timing explains the closely matched market-implied odds between warmer (23°C+) and cooler (13°C or below) outcomes, with specific probabilities clustering around 18–19°C reflecting the baseline forecast tempered by these dynamic factors. Updated model runs and official Italian meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive further adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts for Milan indicate a daily minimum near 19°C on September 16, with highs of 24–27°C under initially stable high pressure.** An incoming low-pressure system and associated thunderstorms—carrying a yellow warning for Lombardy—are expected to increase cloud cover, precipitation, and potentially stronger winds overnight, which could either enhance cooling through evaporative effects or limit radiative heat loss depending on timing and intensity. Model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF shows this transition, but small shifts in storm arrival or cloud thickness introduce meaningful uncertainty around the exact low. This scientific variability in nocturnal boundary-layer processes and precipitation timing explains the closely matched market-implied odds between warmer (23°C+) and cooler (13°C or below) outcomes, with specific probabilities clustering around 18–19°C reflecting the baseline forecast tempered by these dynamic factors. Updated model runs and official Italian meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive further adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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