Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, with clear skies, light southeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime highs of 26–29°C in Milan on September 14. Subsidence warming under the ridge and the urban heat island effect in the Po Valley are key drivers pushing maxima toward the upper end of seasonal norms for mid-September. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–28°C, with limited spread and no incoming fronts or increased moisture to alter the pattern before resolution. This scientific consensus underpins trader positioning, favoring 28–29°C outcomes as the most probable given current model agreement and absence of disruptive atmospheric changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 14?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 14?
29°C 44%
28°C 34%
30°C 15%
27°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
6%
27°C
7%
28°C
34%
29°C
44%
30°C
15%
31°C or higher
4%
29°C 44%
28°C 34%
30°C 15%
27°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
21°C or below
$253 Vol.
1%
22°C
$253 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$117 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$27 Vol.
6%
27°C
$42 Vol.
7%
28°C
$1,127 Vol.
34%
29°C
$267 Vol.
44%
30°C
$113 Vol.
15%
31°C or higher
$33 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, with clear skies, light southeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime highs of 26–29°C in Milan on September 14. Subsidence warming under the ridge and the urban heat island effect in the Po Valley are key drivers pushing maxima toward the upper end of seasonal norms for mid-September. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–28°C, with limited spread and no incoming fronts or increased moisture to alter the pattern before resolution. This scientific consensus underpins trader positioning, favoring 28–29°C outcomes as the most probable given current model agreement and absence of disruptive atmospheric changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,299End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, with clear skies, light southeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime highs of 26–29°C in Milan on September 14. Subsidence warming under the ridge and the urban heat island effect in the Po Valley are key drivers pushing maxima toward the upper end of seasonal norms for mid-September. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–28°C, with limited spread and no incoming fronts or increased moisture to alter the pattern before resolution. This scientific consensus underpins trader positioning, favoring 28–29°C outcomes as the most probable given current model agreement and absence of disruptive atmospheric changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,299End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, with clear skies, light southeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime highs of 26–29°C in Milan on September 14. Subsidence warming under the ridge and the urban heat island effect in the Po Valley are key drivers pushing maxima toward the upper end of seasonal norms for mid-September. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–28°C, with limited spread and no incoming fronts or increased moisture to alter the pattern before resolution. This scientific consensus underpins trader positioning, favoring 28–29°C outcomes as the most probable given current model agreement and absence of disruptive atmospheric changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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