Current forecast consensus from regional models indicates overnight lows near 12–13°C for Mexico City on September 16, supporting the closely matched trader-implied probabilities across 12°C, 13°C, and 16°C-or-higher outcomes. High-elevation radiative cooling under partly clear skies, combined with dew points around 11–13°C and light northerly winds, sets the baseline minimum while limiting further drops. Minor differences in cloud cover, humidity, or localized urban heat effects among model runs create the narrow spread in sentiment, as even small shifts could favor 14–15°C or push toward 11°C. Updated guidance from CONAGUA and international ensembles over the next 24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 16?
16°C or higher 53%
13°C 40%
15°C 39%
12°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
4%
7°C
4%
8°C
9%
9°C
13%
10°C
26%
11°C
29%
12°C
30%
13°C
33%
14°C
26%
15°C
39%
16°C or higher
53%
16°C or higher 53%
13°C 40%
15°C 39%
12°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
7°C
$0 Vol.
4%
8°C
$0 Vol.
9%
9°C
$0 Vol.
13%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$1 Vol.
30%
13°C
$4 Vol.
33%
14°C
$5 Vol.
26%
15°C
$6 Vol.
39%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from regional models indicates overnight lows near 12–13°C for Mexico City on September 16, supporting the closely matched trader-implied probabilities across 12°C, 13°C, and 16°C-or-higher outcomes. High-elevation radiative cooling under partly clear skies, combined with dew points around 11–13°C and light northerly winds, sets the baseline minimum while limiting further drops. Minor differences in cloud cover, humidity, or localized urban heat effects among model runs create the narrow spread in sentiment, as even small shifts could favor 14–15°C or push toward 11°C. Updated guidance from CONAGUA and international ensembles over the next 24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$17End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from regional models indicates overnight lows near 12–13°C for Mexico City on September 16, supporting the closely matched trader-implied probabilities across 12°C, 13°C, and 16°C-or-higher outcomes. High-elevation radiative cooling under partly clear skies, combined with dew points around 11–13°C and light northerly winds, sets the baseline minimum while limiting further drops. Minor differences in cloud cover, humidity, or localized urban heat effects among model runs create the narrow spread in sentiment, as even small shifts could favor 14–15°C or push toward 11°C. Updated guidance from CONAGUA and international ensembles over the next 24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from regional models indicates overnight lows near 12–13°C for Mexico City on September 16, supporting the closely matched trader-implied probabilities across 12°C, 13°C, and 16°C-or-higher outcomes. High-elevation radiative cooling under partly clear skies, combined with dew points around 11–13°C and light northerly winds, sets the baseline minimum while limiting further drops. Minor differences in cloud cover, humidity, or localized urban heat effects among model runs create the narrow spread in sentiment, as even small shifts could favor 14–15°C or push toward 11°C. Updated guidance from CONAGUA and international ensembles over the next 24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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