**Forecast models and observational data point to an afternoon peak near 24°C as the most probable outcome for Mexico City's highest temperature on September 15, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability on 24°C and 37% on 25°C.** Mexico City's subtropical highland climate at roughly 2,240 meters elevation produces moderate daytime highs even in September, the heart of the rainy season. Typical maximums hover around 23–24°C, driven by diurnal heating under variable cloud cover, while frequent afternoon convection and showers—fed by moisture from the Pacific and Gulf—often cap temperatures before they can climb further. Recent forecasts from multiple sources show consensus on a high of 22–24°C, with some runs reaching 25°C under clearer or drier conditions midday before showers develop. The 23°C outcome (11%) remains plausible if stronger early cloud cover or earlier rainfall suppresses heating, while probabilities drop sharply above 26°C due to the rarity of such warmth this late in the wet season without anomalous high-pressure ridging. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model guidance on timing of any convection and expected cloud fraction, which directly influences peak solar insolation and surface warming. Updated National Meteorological Service or international model runs later in the day could shift the distribution if unexpected clearing occurs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 15?
24°C 54%
25°C 26%
23°C 14%
26°C 4%
NEW
$11,997 Vol.
NEW
$11,997 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
14%
24°C
54%
25°C
26%
26°C
4%
27°C or higher
2%
24°C 54%
25°C 26%
23°C 14%
26°C 4%
NEW
$11,997 Vol.
NEW
$11,997 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
17°C or below
$348 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$348 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,219 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$36 Vol.
1%
22°C
$617 Vol.
3%
23°C
$2,695 Vol.
14%
24°C
$2,187 Vol.
54%
25°C
$3,267 Vol.
26%
26°C
$968 Vol.
4%
27°C or higher
$14 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational data point to an afternoon peak near 24°C as the most probable outcome for Mexico City's highest temperature on September 15, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability on 24°C and 37% on 25°C.**
Mexico City's subtropical highland climate at roughly 2,240 meters elevation produces moderate daytime highs even in September, the heart of the rainy season. Typical maximums hover around 23–24°C, driven by diurnal heating under variable cloud cover, while frequent afternoon convection and showers—fed by moisture from the Pacific and Gulf—often cap temperatures before they can climb further. Recent forecasts from multiple sources show consensus on a high of 22–24°C, with some runs reaching 25°C under clearer or drier conditions midday before showers develop.
The 23°C outcome (11%) remains plausible if stronger early cloud cover or earlier rainfall suppresses heating, while probabilities drop sharply above 26°C due to the rarity of such warmth this late in the wet season without anomalous high-pressure ridging. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model guidance on timing of any convection and expected cloud fraction, which directly influences peak solar insolation and surface warming. Updated National Meteorological Service or international model runs later in the day could shift the distribution if unexpected clearing occurs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$11,997End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational data point to an afternoon peak near 24°C as the most probable outcome for Mexico City's highest temperature on September 15, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability on 24°C and 37% on 25°C.**
Mexico City's subtropical highland climate at roughly 2,240 meters elevation produces moderate daytime highs even in September, the heart of the rainy season. Typical maximums hover around 23–24°C, driven by diurnal heating under variable cloud cover, while frequent afternoon convection and showers—fed by moisture from the Pacific and Gulf—often cap temperatures before they can climb further. Recent forecasts from multiple sources show consensus on a high of 22–24°C, with some runs reaching 25°C under clearer or drier conditions midday before showers develop.
The 23°C outcome (11%) remains plausible if stronger early cloud cover or earlier rainfall suppresses heating, while probabilities drop sharply above 26°C due to the rarity of such warmth this late in the wet season without anomalous high-pressure ridging. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model guidance on timing of any convection and expected cloud fraction, which directly influences peak solar insolation and surface warming. Updated National Meteorological Service or international model runs later in the day could shift the distribution if unexpected clearing occurs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,997End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and observational data point to an afternoon peak near 24°C as the most probable outcome for Mexico City's highest temperature on September 15, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability on 24°C and 37% on 25°C.** Mexico City's subtropical highland climate at roughly 2,240 meters elevation produces moderate daytime highs even in September, the heart of the rainy season. Typical maximums hover around 23–24°C, driven by diurnal heating under variable cloud cover, while frequent afternoon convection and showers—fed by moisture from the Pacific and Gulf—often cap temperatures before they can climb further. Recent forecasts from multiple sources show consensus on a high of 22–24°C, with some runs reaching 25°C under clearer or drier conditions midday before showers develop. The 23°C outcome (11%) remains plausible if stronger early cloud cover or earlier rainfall suppresses heating, while probabilities drop sharply above 26°C due to the rarity of such warmth this late in the wet season without anomalous high-pressure ridging. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model guidance on timing of any convection and expected cloud fraction, which directly influences peak solar insolation and surface warming. Updated National Meteorological Service or international model runs later in the day could shift the distribution if unexpected clearing occurs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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