Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models including ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul under persistent northeasterly flow and extensive cloud cover on September 16, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum near 21–22°C. Light precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius further moderate surface temperatures. This consensus aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (62.5%) and 21°C (24.0%), while the modest probability on 23°C reflects residual model spread in cloud timing. Historical September climatology averages near 24°C, but the current synoptic setup has kept readings 2–3°C below normal, reinforcing trader focus on the lower end of the typical range. Updated model guidance later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
22°C 63%
21°C 24%
23°C 12%
20°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
24%
22°C
63%
23°C
12%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 63%
21°C 24%
23°C 12%
20°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
$143 Vol.
1%
19°C
$102 Vol.
2%
20°C
$506 Vol.
3%
21°C
$1,361 Vol.
24%
22°C
$1,474 Vol.
63%
23°C
$619 Vol.
12%
24°C
$233 Vol.
2%
25°C
$215 Vol.
3%
26°C
$175 Vol.
1%
27°C
$155 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$189 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models including ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul under persistent northeasterly flow and extensive cloud cover on September 16, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum near 21–22°C. Light precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius further moderate surface temperatures. This consensus aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (62.5%) and 21°C (24.0%), while the modest probability on 23°C reflects residual model spread in cloud timing. Historical September climatology averages near 24°C, but the current synoptic setup has kept readings 2–3°C below normal, reinforcing trader focus on the lower end of the typical range. Updated model guidance later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$5,166End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models including ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul under persistent northeasterly flow and extensive cloud cover on September 16, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum near 21–22°C. Light precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius further moderate surface temperatures. This consensus aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (62.5%) and 21°C (24.0%), while the modest probability on 23°C reflects residual model spread in cloud timing. Historical September climatology averages near 24°C, but the current synoptic setup has kept readings 2–3°C below normal, reinforcing trader focus on the lower end of the typical range. Updated model guidance later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,166End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models including ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul under persistent northeasterly flow and extensive cloud cover on September 16, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum near 21–22°C. Light precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius further moderate surface temperatures. This consensus aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (62.5%) and 21°C (24.0%), while the modest probability on 23°C reflects residual model spread in cloud timing. Historical September climatology averages near 24°C, but the current synoptic setup has kept readings 2–3°C below normal, reinforcing trader focus on the lower end of the typical range. Updated model guidance later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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