Recent forecast updates from regional models and official monitoring point to clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime heating that could push Qingdao’s maximum into the low 30s°C range on September 16. Hourly observations already show afternoon readings climbing toward 30–31°C, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when high-pressure influence suppresses cloud cover and limits marine cooling. Model consensus remains tight on the upper end but carries typical uncertainty from local urban heat effects and exact timing of peak insolation. Traders appear to weigh these conditions against historical September maxima near 29°C, concentrating implied probability on 32–33°C while assigning lower odds to cooler outcomes that would require unexpected onshore shifts or increased cloudiness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 16?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 16?
32°C 50%
33°C 35%
31°C 11%
34°C 6%
NEW
$14,843 Vol.
NEW
$14,843 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
11%
32°C
50%
33°C
35%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 50%
33°C 35%
31°C 11%
34°C 6%
NEW
$14,843 Vol.
NEW
$14,843 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
$348 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$352 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$564 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$351 Vol.
1%
29°C
$447 Vol.
1%
30°C
$883 Vol.
3%
31°C
$2,001 Vol.
11%
32°C
$3,354 Vol.
50%
33°C
$4,068 Vol.
35%
34°C
$1,760 Vol.
6%
35°C or higher
$714 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from regional models and official monitoring point to clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime heating that could push Qingdao’s maximum into the low 30s°C range on September 16. Hourly observations already show afternoon readings climbing toward 30–31°C, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when high-pressure influence suppresses cloud cover and limits marine cooling. Model consensus remains tight on the upper end but carries typical uncertainty from local urban heat effects and exact timing of peak insolation. Traders appear to weigh these conditions against historical September maxima near 29°C, concentrating implied probability on 32–33°C while assigning lower odds to cooler outcomes that would require unexpected onshore shifts or increased cloudiness.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$14,843End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from regional models and official monitoring point to clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime heating that could push Qingdao’s maximum into the low 30s°C range on September 16. Hourly observations already show afternoon readings climbing toward 30–31°C, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when high-pressure influence suppresses cloud cover and limits marine cooling. Model consensus remains tight on the upper end but carries typical uncertainty from local urban heat effects and exact timing of peak insolation. Traders appear to weigh these conditions against historical September maxima near 29°C, concentrating implied probability on 32–33°C while assigning lower odds to cooler outcomes that would require unexpected onshore shifts or increased cloudiness.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,843End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast updates from regional models and official monitoring point to clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime heating that could push Qingdao’s maximum into the low 30s°C range on September 16. Hourly observations already show afternoon readings climbing toward 30–31°C, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when high-pressure influence suppresses cloud cover and limits marine cooling. Model consensus remains tight on the upper end but carries typical uncertainty from local urban heat effects and exact timing of peak insolation. Traders appear to weigh these conditions against historical September maxima near 29°C, concentrating implied probability on 32–33°C while assigning lower odds to cooler outcomes that would require unexpected onshore shifts or increased cloudiness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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