Recent forecast consensus from models including those referenced by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles points to a September 17 high near 22–23 °C under northerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with early spring climatology for Buenos Aires. Trader positioning favoring 25 °C (47 % implied probability) or 26 °C+ (30.5 %) appears driven by uncertainty ranges in maximum-temperature guidance, potential for stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains limited, and historical precedent for rapid warm-ups when high pressure builds. Key resolution thresholds hinge on official 24-hour maximum readings, with upcoming model updates and surface observations likely to refine probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 17?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 17?
25°C 54%
26°C or higher 30%
24°C 13%
23°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
13%
25°C
54%
26°C or higher
30%
25°C 54%
26°C or higher 30%
24°C 13%
23°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
16°C or below
$89 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$189 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$304 Vol.
1%
21°C
$380 Vol.
1%
22°C
$270 Vol.
2%
23°C
$726 Vol.
4%
24°C
$748 Vol.
13%
25°C
$2,077 Vol.
54%
26°C or higher
$1,404 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including those referenced by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles points to a September 17 high near 22–23 °C under northerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with early spring climatology for Buenos Aires. Trader positioning favoring 25 °C (47 % implied probability) or 26 °C+ (30.5 %) appears driven by uncertainty ranges in maximum-temperature guidance, potential for stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains limited, and historical precedent for rapid warm-ups when high pressure builds. Key resolution thresholds hinge on official 24-hour maximum readings, with upcoming model updates and surface observations likely to refine probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$6,495End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including those referenced by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles points to a September 17 high near 22–23 °C under northerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with early spring climatology for Buenos Aires. Trader positioning favoring 25 °C (47 % implied probability) or 26 °C+ (30.5 %) appears driven by uncertainty ranges in maximum-temperature guidance, potential for stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains limited, and historical precedent for rapid warm-ups when high pressure builds. Key resolution thresholds hinge on official 24-hour maximum readings, with upcoming model updates and surface observations likely to refine probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,495End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models including those referenced by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles points to a September 17 high near 22–23 °C under northerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, consistent with early spring climatology for Buenos Aires. Trader positioning favoring 25 °C (47 % implied probability) or 26 °C+ (30.5 %) appears driven by uncertainty ranges in maximum-temperature guidance, potential for stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains limited, and historical precedent for rapid warm-ups when high pressure builds. Key resolution thresholds hinge on official 24-hour maximum readings, with upcoming model updates and surface observations likely to refine probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions