Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA consensus point to a minimum temperature in the mid to upper 70s°F for Houston on September 18 under clear to mostly clear skies, light easterly winds, and high pressure promoting overnight radiative cooling. Recent observations show overnight lows near 77–80°F amid typical late-summer humidity and dew points in the low 70s, limiting further drops despite the absence of clouds or precipitation. This setup favors the market's leading 78–79°F and 76–77°F outcomes while keeping 80–81°F viable if mixing persists longer. Key variables include exact timing of the daily minimum before sunrise, local urban heat island effects, and any subtle shifts in steering winds that could alter boundary-layer mixing. Updated NWS briefings and real-time station data through the morning will refine resolution as the calendar day completes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 18?
78-79°F 58%
76-77°F 40%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
71°F or below
4%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
35%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
2%
78-79°F 58%
76-77°F 40%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$15 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$10 Vol.
25%
78-79°F
$125 Vol.
35%
80-81°F
$58 Vol.
40%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
40%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
11%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$16 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$46 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA consensus point to a minimum temperature in the mid to upper 70s°F for Houston on September 18 under clear to mostly clear skies, light easterly winds, and high pressure promoting overnight radiative cooling. Recent observations show overnight lows near 77–80°F amid typical late-summer humidity and dew points in the low 70s, limiting further drops despite the absence of clouds or precipitation. This setup favors the market's leading 78–79°F and 76–77°F outcomes while keeping 80–81°F viable if mixing persists longer. Key variables include exact timing of the daily minimum before sunrise, local urban heat island effects, and any subtle shifts in steering winds that could alter boundary-layer mixing. Updated NWS briefings and real-time station data through the morning will refine resolution as the calendar day completes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
Volume
$270End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA consensus point to a minimum temperature in the mid to upper 70s°F for Houston on September 18 under clear to mostly clear skies, light easterly winds, and high pressure promoting overnight radiative cooling. Recent observations show overnight lows near 77–80°F amid typical late-summer humidity and dew points in the low 70s, limiting further drops despite the absence of clouds or precipitation. This setup favors the market's leading 78–79°F and 76–77°F outcomes while keeping 80–81°F viable if mixing persists longer. Key variables include exact timing of the daily minimum before sunrise, local urban heat island effects, and any subtle shifts in steering winds that could alter boundary-layer mixing. Updated NWS briefings and real-time station data through the morning will refine resolution as the calendar day completes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$270End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA consensus point to a minimum temperature in the mid to upper 70s°F for Houston on September 18 under clear to mostly clear skies, light easterly winds, and high pressure promoting overnight radiative cooling. Recent observations show overnight lows near 77–80°F amid typical late-summer humidity and dew points in the low 70s, limiting further drops despite the absence of clouds or precipitation. This setup favors the market's leading 78–79°F and 76–77°F outcomes while keeping 80–81°F viable if mixing persists longer. Key variables include exact timing of the daily minimum before sunrise, local urban heat island effects, and any subtle shifts in steering winds that could alter boundary-layer mixing. Updated NWS briefings and real-time station data through the morning will refine resolution as the calendar day completes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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