Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 18–19°C for Beijing on September 20, driven by mild overnight conditions under partly cloudy skies, light northeast-to-southwest winds, and dew points around 15–18°C that limit radiative cooling. Recent days have featured similar stable late-summer patterns with lows of 17–20°C and no significant cold-air advection or frontal passage to push readings lower. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 17–19°C reflect the narrow uncertainty range in numerical weather prediction outputs and the resolution criteria tied to official station observations, where small shifts in cloud cover or wind could differentiate the exact minimum. Historical September averages near 15–16°C provide context, but current warmth keeps probabilities for sub-17°C outcomes near even rather than dominant. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine these odds before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 20?
16°C or below 100%
17°C 100%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
100%
17°C
100%
18°C
50%
19°C
53%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
16°C or below 100%
17°C 100%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
17°C
$0 Vol.
100%
18°C
$44 Vol.
50%
19°C
$7 Vol.
53%
20°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$383 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 18–19°C for Beijing on September 20, driven by mild overnight conditions under partly cloudy skies, light northeast-to-southwest winds, and dew points around 15–18°C that limit radiative cooling. Recent days have featured similar stable late-summer patterns with lows of 17–20°C and no significant cold-air advection or frontal passage to push readings lower. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 17–19°C reflect the narrow uncertainty range in numerical weather prediction outputs and the resolution criteria tied to official station observations, where small shifts in cloud cover or wind could differentiate the exact minimum. Historical September averages near 15–16°C provide context, but current warmth keeps probabilities for sub-17°C outcomes near even rather than dominant. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine these odds before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,933End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 18–19°C for Beijing on September 20, driven by mild overnight conditions under partly cloudy skies, light northeast-to-southwest winds, and dew points around 15–18°C that limit radiative cooling. Recent days have featured similar stable late-summer patterns with lows of 17–20°C and no significant cold-air advection or frontal passage to push readings lower. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 17–19°C reflect the narrow uncertainty range in numerical weather prediction outputs and the resolution criteria tied to official station observations, where small shifts in cloud cover or wind could differentiate the exact minimum. Historical September averages near 15–16°C provide context, but current warmth keeps probabilities for sub-17°C outcomes near even rather than dominant. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine these odds before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,933End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 18–19°C for Beijing on September 20, driven by mild overnight conditions under partly cloudy skies, light northeast-to-southwest winds, and dew points around 15–18°C that limit radiative cooling. Recent days have featured similar stable late-summer patterns with lows of 17–20°C and no significant cold-air advection or frontal passage to push readings lower. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 17–19°C reflect the narrow uncertainty range in numerical weather prediction outputs and the resolution criteria tied to official station observations, where small shifts in cloud cover or wind could differentiate the exact minimum. Historical September averages near 15–16°C provide context, but current warmth keeps probabilities for sub-17°C outcomes near even rather than dominant. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine these odds before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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