Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 31–33°C in Shenzhen on September 20, driven by the prevailing northeast monsoon bringing easterly flow, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy skies that limit extreme surface heating. The market’s tight clustering around 32°C (29.5%) and 33°C (25%) reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud build-up and any scattered showers, which could suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C if they develop earlier than expected. Clearer morning conditions favor the upper end of the range, while increased convective activity or thicker cloud cover supports the lower probabilities. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the peak temperature and shift implied probabilities accordingly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 20?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 20?
32°C 30%
33°C 25%
30°C 18%
34°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
15%
30°C
18%
31°C
15%
32°C
30%
33°C
25%
34°C
17%
35°C
13%
36°C
5%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 30%
33°C 25%
30°C 18%
34°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
28°C or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$0 Vol.
18%
31°C
$0 Vol.
15%
32°C
$0 Vol.
30%
33°C
$1 Vol.
25%
34°C
$0 Vol.
17%
35°C
$0 Vol.
13%
36°C
$15 Vol.
5%
37°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$117 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 31–33°C in Shenzhen on September 20, driven by the prevailing northeast monsoon bringing easterly flow, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy skies that limit extreme surface heating. The market’s tight clustering around 32°C (29.5%) and 33°C (25%) reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud build-up and any scattered showers, which could suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C if they develop earlier than expected. Clearer morning conditions favor the upper end of the range, while increased convective activity or thicker cloud cover supports the lower probabilities. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the peak temperature and shift implied probabilities accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$355End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 31–33°C in Shenzhen on September 20, driven by the prevailing northeast monsoon bringing easterly flow, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy skies that limit extreme surface heating. The market’s tight clustering around 32°C (29.5%) and 33°C (25%) reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud build-up and any scattered showers, which could suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C if they develop earlier than expected. Clearer morning conditions favor the upper end of the range, while increased convective activity or thicker cloud cover supports the lower probabilities. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the peak temperature and shift implied probabilities accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$355End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 31–33°C in Shenzhen on September 20, driven by the prevailing northeast monsoon bringing easterly flow, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy skies that limit extreme surface heating. The market’s tight clustering around 32°C (29.5%) and 33°C (25%) reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud build-up and any scattered showers, which could suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C if they develop earlier than expected. Clearer morning conditions favor the upper end of the range, while increased convective activity or thicker cloud cover supports the lower probabilities. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the peak temperature and shift implied probabilities accordingly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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