**Warm southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies are keeping Austin's overnight low in the mid-70s on September 20, 2026.** Official NWS forecasts and multiple model runs project a minimum near 75–77°F, with current early-morning readings already at 79°F and only modest drops expected before sunrise. Persistent warm advection from the Gulf, combined with high dew points near 70°F and light winds, suppresses radiative cooling that would otherwise produce lower readings. This places the outcome squarely between the 70–71°F, 72–73°F, and 74–75°F bins, which show nearly identical market-implied probabilities. Historical September averages near 66–67°F underscore the anomalous warmth driven by the ongoing heat dome. Resolution will hinge on the official minimum reported by Austin-Bergstrom International Airport or NWS Austin stations once the full daily observation cycle completes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 20?
68-69°F 98%
70-71°F 50%
72-73°F 50%
66-67°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
65°F or below
2%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
98%
70-71°F
50%
72-73°F
50%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 98%
70-71°F 50%
72-73°F 50%
66-67°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
65°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$8 Vol.
98%
70-71°F
$9 Vol.
50%
72-73°F
$5 Vol.
50%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$61 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$73 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$31 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$31 Vol.
<1%
84°F or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Warm southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies are keeping Austin's overnight low in the mid-70s on September 20, 2026.** Official NWS forecasts and multiple model runs project a minimum near 75–77°F, with current early-morning readings already at 79°F and only modest drops expected before sunrise. Persistent warm advection from the Gulf, combined with high dew points near 70°F and light winds, suppresses radiative cooling that would otherwise produce lower readings. This places the outcome squarely between the 70–71°F, 72–73°F, and 74–75°F bins, which show nearly identical market-implied probabilities. Historical September averages near 66–67°F underscore the anomalous warmth driven by the ongoing heat dome. Resolution will hinge on the official minimum reported by Austin-Bergstrom International Airport or NWS Austin stations once the full daily observation cycle completes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$249End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Warm southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies are keeping Austin's overnight low in the mid-70s on September 20, 2026.** Official NWS forecasts and multiple model runs project a minimum near 75–77°F, with current early-morning readings already at 79°F and only modest drops expected before sunrise. Persistent warm advection from the Gulf, combined with high dew points near 70°F and light winds, suppresses radiative cooling that would otherwise produce lower readings. This places the outcome squarely between the 70–71°F, 72–73°F, and 74–75°F bins, which show nearly identical market-implied probabilities. Historical September averages near 66–67°F underscore the anomalous warmth driven by the ongoing heat dome. Resolution will hinge on the official minimum reported by Austin-Bergstrom International Airport or NWS Austin stations once the full daily observation cycle completes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$249End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Warm southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies are keeping Austin's overnight low in the mid-70s on September 20, 2026.** Official NWS forecasts and multiple model runs project a minimum near 75–77°F, with current early-morning readings already at 79°F and only modest drops expected before sunrise. Persistent warm advection from the Gulf, combined with high dew points near 70°F and light winds, suppresses radiative cooling that would otherwise produce lower readings. This places the outcome squarely between the 70–71°F, 72–73°F, and 74–75°F bins, which show nearly identical market-implied probabilities. Historical September averages near 66–67°F underscore the anomalous warmth driven by the ongoing heat dome. Resolution will hinge on the official minimum reported by Austin-Bergstrom International Airport or NWS Austin stations once the full daily observation cycle completes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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