Northeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover are the main drivers keeping the lowest temperature in New York City on September 22 clustered between 58°F and 61°F, with market-implied odds nearly even for the two leading bins. National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a minimum near 58–59°F under mostly cloudy skies and northeast winds of 10–15 mph, which limit radiational cooling while marine air moderates readings. Light rain chances add minor uncertainty to the exact low, as any clearer breaks could allow slightly more cooling. Historical late-September averages for the area fall in the mid- to upper 50s, providing context for the current mild pattern. Updated model runs and overnight observations from NOAA will likely narrow the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 22?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 22?
60-61°F 42%
58-59°F 40%
62-63°F 15%
54-55°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
51°F or below
3%
52-53°F
7%
54-55°F
8%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
42%
62-63°F
15%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
2%
60-61°F 42%
58-59°F 40%
62-63°F 15%
54-55°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
51°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
7%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
8%
56-57°F
$114 Vol.
6%
58-59°F
$395 Vol.
40%
60-61°F
$258 Vol.
42%
62-63°F
$345 Vol.
15%
64-65°F
$37 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
5%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
2%
70°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover are the main drivers keeping the lowest temperature in New York City on September 22 clustered between 58°F and 61°F, with market-implied odds nearly even for the two leading bins. National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a minimum near 58–59°F under mostly cloudy skies and northeast winds of 10–15 mph, which limit radiational cooling while marine air moderates readings. Light rain chances add minor uncertainty to the exact low, as any clearer breaks could allow slightly more cooling. Historical late-September averages for the area fall in the mid- to upper 50s, providing context for the current mild pattern. Updated model runs and overnight observations from NOAA will likely narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,150End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover are the main drivers keeping the lowest temperature in New York City on September 22 clustered between 58°F and 61°F, with market-implied odds nearly even for the two leading bins. National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a minimum near 58–59°F under mostly cloudy skies and northeast winds of 10–15 mph, which limit radiational cooling while marine air moderates readings. Light rain chances add minor uncertainty to the exact low, as any clearer breaks could allow slightly more cooling. Historical late-September averages for the area fall in the mid- to upper 50s, providing context for the current mild pattern. Updated model runs and overnight observations from NOAA will likely narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,150End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover are the main drivers keeping the lowest temperature in New York City on September 22 clustered between 58°F and 61°F, with market-implied odds nearly even for the two leading bins. National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a minimum near 58–59°F under mostly cloudy skies and northeast winds of 10–15 mph, which limit radiational cooling while marine air moderates readings. Light rain chances add minor uncertainty to the exact low, as any clearer breaks could allow slightly more cooling. Historical late-September averages for the area fall in the mid- to upper 50s, providing context for the current mild pattern. Updated model runs and overnight observations from NOAA will likely narrow the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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