Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate San Francisco overnight lows of 56–58°F on September 23, following a cool spell tied to a departing cut-off low. A warming trend resumes midweek with lighter winds and reduced marine stratus, allowing greater radiative cooling under partly clear skies, though the Pacific marine layer and typical westerly flow continue to moderate coastal temperatures near historical averages of 55–56°F. Key uncertainties center on exact cloud cover and wind strength, which can shift minimums by several degrees across city microclimates. Trader consensus around the mid-50s range reflects these converging model outputs while acknowledging residual variability in boundary-layer conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
47°F or below 83%
66°F or higher 83%
56-57°F 57%
48-49°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
47°F or below
83%
48-49°F
39%
50-51°F
20%
52-53°F
20%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
52%
58-59°F
20%
60-61°F
20%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
39%
66°F or higher
83%
47°F or below 83%
66°F or higher 83%
56-57°F 57%
48-49°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
47°F or below
$10 Vol.
83%
48-49°F
$10 Vol.
39%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
20%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
20%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
25%
56-57°F
$70 Vol.
52%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
20%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
20%
62-63°F
$10 Vol.
20%
64-65°F
$10 Vol.
39%
66°F or higher
$10 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate San Francisco overnight lows of 56–58°F on September 23, following a cool spell tied to a departing cut-off low. A warming trend resumes midweek with lighter winds and reduced marine stratus, allowing greater radiative cooling under partly clear skies, though the Pacific marine layer and typical westerly flow continue to moderate coastal temperatures near historical averages of 55–56°F. Key uncertainties center on exact cloud cover and wind strength, which can shift minimums by several degrees across city microclimates. Trader consensus around the mid-50s range reflects these converging model outputs while acknowledging residual variability in boundary-layer conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate San Francisco overnight lows of 56–58°F on September 23, following a cool spell tied to a departing cut-off low. A warming trend resumes midweek with lighter winds and reduced marine stratus, allowing greater radiative cooling under partly clear skies, though the Pacific marine layer and typical westerly flow continue to moderate coastal temperatures near historical averages of 55–56°F. Key uncertainties center on exact cloud cover and wind strength, which can shift minimums by several degrees across city microclimates. Trader consensus around the mid-50s range reflects these converging model outputs while acknowledging residual variability in boundary-layer conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate San Francisco overnight lows of 56–58°F on September 23, following a cool spell tied to a departing cut-off low. A warming trend resumes midweek with lighter winds and reduced marine stratus, allowing greater radiative cooling under partly clear skies, though the Pacific marine layer and typical westerly flow continue to moderate coastal temperatures near historical averages of 55–56°F. Key uncertainties center on exact cloud cover and wind strength, which can shift minimums by several degrees across city microclimates. Trader consensus around the mid-50s range reflects these converging model outputs while acknowledging residual variability in boundary-layer conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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