Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on a high of 28–29°C for Shanghai on September 21, driven by moderate northerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and seasonal cooling typical of mid-September. These conditions suppress strong daytime heating while maintaining humidity levels that moderate temperature extremes, aligning with climatological averages near 27–28°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 29°C (55.5%) and 28°C (36.5%) reflects this consensus, with only low probabilities assigned to 30°C or higher outcomes that would require unexpected clear skies or southerly advection. Updated model runs and local station data expected overnight will provide the final inputs for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 21?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 21?
29°C 56%
28°C 35%
30°C 5%
27°C 5%
NEW
$15,863 Vol.
NEW
$15,863 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
35%
29°C
56%
30°C
5%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 56%
28°C 35%
30°C 5%
27°C 5%
NEW
$15,863 Vol.
NEW
$15,863 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
$1,050 Vol.
1%
27°C
$2,389 Vol.
5%
28°C
$3,417 Vol.
35%
29°C
$4,490 Vol.
56%
30°C
$1,110 Vol.
5%
31°C
$995 Vol.
2%
32°C
$1,428 Vol.
1%
33°C
$348 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$291 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$291 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on a high of 28–29°C for Shanghai on September 21, driven by moderate northerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and seasonal cooling typical of mid-September. These conditions suppress strong daytime heating while maintaining humidity levels that moderate temperature extremes, aligning with climatological averages near 27–28°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 29°C (55.5%) and 28°C (36.5%) reflects this consensus, with only low probabilities assigned to 30°C or higher outcomes that would require unexpected clear skies or southerly advection. Updated model runs and local station data expected overnight will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,863End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on a high of 28–29°C for Shanghai on September 21, driven by moderate northerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and seasonal cooling typical of mid-September. These conditions suppress strong daytime heating while maintaining humidity levels that moderate temperature extremes, aligning with climatological averages near 27–28°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 29°C (55.5%) and 28°C (36.5%) reflects this consensus, with only low probabilities assigned to 30°C or higher outcomes that would require unexpected clear skies or southerly advection. Updated model runs and local station data expected overnight will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,863End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on a high of 28–29°C for Shanghai on September 21, driven by moderate northerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and seasonal cooling typical of mid-September. These conditions suppress strong daytime heating while maintaining humidity levels that moderate temperature extremes, aligning with climatological averages near 27–28°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 29°C (55.5%) and 28°C (36.5%) reflects this consensus, with only low probabilities assigned to 30°C or higher outcomes that would require unexpected clear skies or southerly advection. Updated model runs and local station data expected overnight will provide the final inputs for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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