Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northeasterly flow are the dominant factors capping Tokyo’s September 20 maximum near 24 °C, the market’s leading outcome at 41.5 % implied probability. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts from multiple global models show widespread precipitation throughout the daylight hours, limiting solar heating and holding afternoon readings 2–3 °C below seasonal normals. Recent model runs have converged on a narrow 23–25 °C range, explaining the combined 89 % probability mass on those three bins. With landfall or frontal passage timing now largely settled, further revisions are expected to remain small until the final observational window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
24°C 40%
23°C 28%
25°C 20%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
28%
24°C
40%
25°C
20%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 40%
23°C 28%
25°C 20%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
19°C or below
$540 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$404 Vol.
1%
21°C
$588 Vol.
2%
22°C
$446 Vol.
5%
23°C
$3,248 Vol.
28%
24°C
$1,126 Vol.
40%
25°C
$673 Vol.
20%
26°C
$569 Vol.
5%
27°C
$151 Vol.
1%
28°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$126 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northeasterly flow are the dominant factors capping Tokyo’s September 20 maximum near 24 °C, the market’s leading outcome at 41.5 % implied probability. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts from multiple global models show widespread precipitation throughout the daylight hours, limiting solar heating and holding afternoon readings 2–3 °C below seasonal normals. Recent model runs have converged on a narrow 23–25 °C range, explaining the combined 89 % probability mass on those three bins. With landfall or frontal passage timing now largely settled, further revisions are expected to remain small until the final observational window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,038End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northeasterly flow are the dominant factors capping Tokyo’s September 20 maximum near 24 °C, the market’s leading outcome at 41.5 % implied probability. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts from multiple global models show widespread precipitation throughout the daylight hours, limiting solar heating and holding afternoon readings 2–3 °C below seasonal normals. Recent model runs have converged on a narrow 23–25 °C range, explaining the combined 89 % probability mass on those three bins. With landfall or frontal passage timing now largely settled, further revisions are expected to remain small until the final observational window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,038End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northeasterly flow are the dominant factors capping Tokyo’s September 20 maximum near 24 °C, the market’s leading outcome at 41.5 % implied probability. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts from multiple global models show widespread precipitation throughout the daylight hours, limiting solar heating and holding afternoon readings 2–3 °C below seasonal normals. Recent model runs have converged on a narrow 23–25 °C range, explaining the combined 89 % probability mass on those three bins. With landfall or frontal passage timing now largely settled, further revisions are expected to remain small until the final observational window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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