**Short-term numerical weather prediction models from sources like GFS, ECMWF, and regional analyses point to a maximum temperature in Mexico City on September 20 likely falling in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius.** Persistent cloud cover, light rain chances (around 50% in some runs), and modest northerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, keeping conditions near or slightly above the September climatological average high of roughly 23–24°C. Trader consensus, with 49.5% implied probability on 27°C or higher, appears driven by model spread and the possibility of reduced cloudiness or warmer boundary-layer air, while lower outcomes capture the baseline rainy-season suppression. Recent observations from September 18 show highs near 22–23°C under similar overcast conditions, reinforcing the role of synoptic moisture in capping peaks. New model updates and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance ahead of the date will likely influence further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 20?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 20?
26°C 45%
27°C or higher 36%
25°C 18%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
9%
24°C
14%
25°C
18%
26°C
45%
27°C or higher
36%
26°C 45%
27°C or higher 36%
25°C 18%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
18°C
$10 Vol.
2%
19°C
$10 Vol.
2%
20°C
$10 Vol.
2%
21°C
$10 Vol.
3%
22°C
$0 Vol.
3%
23°C
$5 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
14%
25°C
$0 Vol.
18%
26°C
$51 Vol.
45%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term numerical weather prediction models from sources like GFS, ECMWF, and regional analyses point to a maximum temperature in Mexico City on September 20 likely falling in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius.** Persistent cloud cover, light rain chances (around 50% in some runs), and modest northerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, keeping conditions near or slightly above the September climatological average high of roughly 23–24°C.
Trader consensus, with 49.5% implied probability on 27°C or higher, appears driven by model spread and the possibility of reduced cloudiness or warmer boundary-layer air, while lower outcomes capture the baseline rainy-season suppression. Recent observations from September 18 show highs near 22–23°C under similar overcast conditions, reinforcing the role of synoptic moisture in capping peaks. New model updates and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance ahead of the date will likely influence further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$106End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term numerical weather prediction models from sources like GFS, ECMWF, and regional analyses point to a maximum temperature in Mexico City on September 20 likely falling in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius.** Persistent cloud cover, light rain chances (around 50% in some runs), and modest northerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, keeping conditions near or slightly above the September climatological average high of roughly 23–24°C.
Trader consensus, with 49.5% implied probability on 27°C or higher, appears driven by model spread and the possibility of reduced cloudiness or warmer boundary-layer air, while lower outcomes capture the baseline rainy-season suppression. Recent observations from September 18 show highs near 22–23°C under similar overcast conditions, reinforcing the role of synoptic moisture in capping peaks. New model updates and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance ahead of the date will likely influence further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$106End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term numerical weather prediction models from sources like GFS, ECMWF, and regional analyses point to a maximum temperature in Mexico City on September 20 likely falling in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius.** Persistent cloud cover, light rain chances (around 50% in some runs), and modest northerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, keeping conditions near or slightly above the September climatological average high of roughly 23–24°C. Trader consensus, with 49.5% implied probability on 27°C or higher, appears driven by model spread and the possibility of reduced cloudiness or warmer boundary-layer air, while lower outcomes capture the baseline rainy-season suppression. Recent observations from September 18 show highs near 22–23°C under similar overcast conditions, reinforcing the role of synoptic moisture in capping peaks. New model updates and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance ahead of the date will likely influence further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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