Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF position the September 19 daily maximum in Wellington near 15–16°C as the most probable outcome, reflected in the 66.5% market-implied probability for 16°C. Springtime conditions feature moderate northerly to westerly flows ahead of an approaching trough, with daytime heating limited by cloud cover, sea breezes, and typical wind mixing over the harbor. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, consistent with historical September maxima near 14–15°C when similar synoptic patterns occur. Updated guidance through the weekend will refine whether localized clearing allows a brief spike toward 17°C or keeps readings capped at 15°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 19?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 19?
16°C 67%
15°C 19%
17°C 11%
14°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
19%
16°C
67%
17°C
11%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 67%
15°C 19%
17°C 11%
14°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
10°C or below
$261 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$295 Vol.
1%
13°C
$40 Vol.
2%
14°C
$82 Vol.
3%
15°C
$251 Vol.
19%
16°C
$507 Vol.
67%
17°C
$118 Vol.
11%
18°C
$61 Vol.
1%
19°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$261 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF position the September 19 daily maximum in Wellington near 15–16°C as the most probable outcome, reflected in the 66.5% market-implied probability for 16°C. Springtime conditions feature moderate northerly to westerly flows ahead of an approaching trough, with daytime heating limited by cloud cover, sea breezes, and typical wind mixing over the harbor. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, consistent with historical September maxima near 14–15°C when similar synoptic patterns occur. Updated guidance through the weekend will refine whether localized clearing allows a brief spike toward 17°C or keeps readings capped at 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,959End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF position the September 19 daily maximum in Wellington near 15–16°C as the most probable outcome, reflected in the 66.5% market-implied probability for 16°C. Springtime conditions feature moderate northerly to westerly flows ahead of an approaching trough, with daytime heating limited by cloud cover, sea breezes, and typical wind mixing over the harbor. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, consistent with historical September maxima near 14–15°C when similar synoptic patterns occur. Updated guidance through the weekend will refine whether localized clearing allows a brief spike toward 17°C or keeps readings capped at 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,959End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF position the September 19 daily maximum in Wellington near 15–16°C as the most probable outcome, reflected in the 66.5% market-implied probability for 16°C. Springtime conditions feature moderate northerly to westerly flows ahead of an approaching trough, with daytime heating limited by cloud cover, sea breezes, and typical wind mixing over the harbor. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, consistent with historical September maxima near 14–15°C when similar synoptic patterns occur. Updated guidance through the weekend will refine whether localized clearing allows a brief spike toward 17°C or keeps readings capped at 15°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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