Forecast consensus from global models places Wellington's overnight minimum for September 18 around 8–9 °C, aligning with the tight market clustering at 7–9 °C. Springtime southerly or south-easterly flows can enhance radiative cooling under clearer skies, while northerly winds or increased cloud cover limit overnight drops by advecting milder maritime air. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted wind shifts and boundary-layer mixing near the Cook Strait, with some runs showing brief calm periods that allow temperatures to dip toward 7 °C and others maintaining enough mixing to hold near 9 °C. Historical September lows average near 9–10 °C, so the current setup reflects typical variability rather than extremes. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations tomorrow morning will clarify the final minimum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 18?
10°C 40%
11°C 39%
9°C 30%
8°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
4°C or below
2%
5°C
4%
6°C
7%
7°C
25%
8°C
28%
9°C
30%
10°C
40%
11°C
39%
12°C
3%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
2%
10°C 40%
11°C 39%
9°C 30%
8°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
5°C
$0 Vol.
4%
6°C
$0 Vol.
7%
7°C
$0 Vol.
25%
8°C
$0 Vol.
28%
9°C
$0 Vol.
30%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
3%
13°C
$0 Vol.
2%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from global models places Wellington's overnight minimum for September 18 around 8–9 °C, aligning with the tight market clustering at 7–9 °C. Springtime southerly or south-easterly flows can enhance radiative cooling under clearer skies, while northerly winds or increased cloud cover limit overnight drops by advecting milder maritime air. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted wind shifts and boundary-layer mixing near the Cook Strait, with some runs showing brief calm periods that allow temperatures to dip toward 7 °C and others maintaining enough mixing to hold near 9 °C. Historical September lows average near 9–10 °C, so the current setup reflects typical variability rather than extremes. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations tomorrow morning will clarify the final minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from global models places Wellington's overnight minimum for September 18 around 8–9 °C, aligning with the tight market clustering at 7–9 °C. Springtime southerly or south-easterly flows can enhance radiative cooling under clearer skies, while northerly winds or increased cloud cover limit overnight drops by advecting milder maritime air. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted wind shifts and boundary-layer mixing near the Cook Strait, with some runs showing brief calm periods that allow temperatures to dip toward 7 °C and others maintaining enough mixing to hold near 9 °C. Historical September lows average near 9–10 °C, so the current setup reflects typical variability rather than extremes. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations tomorrow morning will clarify the final minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from global models places Wellington's overnight minimum for September 18 around 8–9 °C, aligning with the tight market clustering at 7–9 °C. Springtime southerly or south-easterly flows can enhance radiative cooling under clearer skies, while northerly winds or increased cloud cover limit overnight drops by advecting milder maritime air. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted wind shifts and boundary-layer mixing near the Cook Strait, with some runs showing brief calm periods that allow temperatures to dip toward 7 °C and others maintaining enough mixing to hold near 9 °C. Historical September lows average near 9–10 °C, so the current setup reflects typical variability rather than extremes. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations tomorrow morning will clarify the final minimum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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