Official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and local monitoring place Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 17 near 8°C, with overnight readings influenced by southerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread around this value, as steering patterns and precipitation timing introduce variability in the exact low. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 5–9°C because traders weigh the latest observational data and forecast revisions against historical September baselines, where minima typically range 6–10°C. Proximity to resolution heightens sensitivity to any updated station readings or model runs that could shift the recorded low by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
6°C 100%
7°C 95%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
4°C or below
47%
5°C
48%
6°C
100%
7°C
95%
8°C
50%
9°C
50%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
6°C 100%
7°C 95%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
4°C or below
$19 Vol.
47%
5°C
$4 Vol.
48%
6°C
$0 Vol.
100%
7°C
$0 Vol.
95%
8°C
$0 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
50%
10°C
$234 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and local monitoring place Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 17 near 8°C, with overnight readings influenced by southerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread around this value, as steering patterns and precipitation timing introduce variability in the exact low. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 5–9°C because traders weigh the latest observational data and forecast revisions against historical September baselines, where minima typically range 6–10°C. Proximity to resolution heightens sensitivity to any updated station readings or model runs that could shift the recorded low by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$356End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and local monitoring place Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 17 near 8°C, with overnight readings influenced by southerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread around this value, as steering patterns and precipitation timing introduce variability in the exact low. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 5–9°C because traders weigh the latest observational data and forecast revisions against historical September baselines, where minima typically range 6–10°C. Proximity to resolution heightens sensitivity to any updated station readings or model runs that could shift the recorded low by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$356End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and local monitoring place Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 17 near 8°C, with overnight readings influenced by southerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread around this value, as steering patterns and precipitation timing introduce variability in the exact low. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 5–9°C because traders weigh the latest observational data and forecast revisions against historical September baselines, where minima typically range 6–10°C. Proximity to resolution heightens sensitivity to any updated station readings or model runs that could shift the recorded low by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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