**Forecast models and observational data from multiple meteorological sources indicate a likely daily maximum of 31–33°C in Shenzhen on September 17, 2026, under mostly sunny or partly cloudy conditions with light easterly winds and minimal precipitation risk.** Subtropical high pressure and typical early-autumn solar heating support afternoon peaks near 32°C, consistent with historical September averages of roughly 30–31°C and recent model runs showing stable steering patterns without significant moisture influx or cloud cover to suppress temperatures. Official and ensemble guidance (including updates from Chinese meteorological services and international providers as of September 16) cluster tightly around this range, with limited spread that reduces the chance of outliers above 34°C or below 30°C. Traders appear to weight the consensus 32°C outcome most heavily, followed closely by 31°C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in short-range forecasts and the low likelihood of rapid changes before the observation window closes. Upcoming local observations and any final model updates on the morning of September 17 could still shift probabilities modestly within the central outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 17?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 17?
32°C 52%
31°C 25%
33°C 15%
30°C 5%
NEW
$16,543 Vol.
NEW
$16,543 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
4%
30°C
5%
31°C
25%
32°C
52%
33°C
15%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 52%
31°C 25%
33°C 15%
30°C 5%
NEW
$16,543 Vol.
NEW
$16,543 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
27°C or below
$458 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$567 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$599 Vol.
4%
30°C
$765 Vol.
5%
31°C
$3,089 Vol.
25%
32°C
$3,192 Vol.
52%
33°C
$3,757 Vol.
15%
34°C
$1,544 Vol.
4%
35°C
$1,071 Vol.
2%
36°C
$294 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$1,207 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational data from multiple meteorological sources indicate a likely daily maximum of 31–33°C in Shenzhen on September 17, 2026, under mostly sunny or partly cloudy conditions with light easterly winds and minimal precipitation risk.**
Subtropical high pressure and typical early-autumn solar heating support afternoon peaks near 32°C, consistent with historical September averages of roughly 30–31°C and recent model runs showing stable steering patterns without significant moisture influx or cloud cover to suppress temperatures. Official and ensemble guidance (including updates from Chinese meteorological services and international providers as of September 16) cluster tightly around this range, with limited spread that reduces the chance of outliers above 34°C or below 30°C.
Traders appear to weight the consensus 32°C outcome most heavily, followed closely by 31°C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in short-range forecasts and the low likelihood of rapid changes before the observation window closes. Upcoming local observations and any final model updates on the morning of September 17 could still shift probabilities modestly within the central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$16,543End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational data from multiple meteorological sources indicate a likely daily maximum of 31–33°C in Shenzhen on September 17, 2026, under mostly sunny or partly cloudy conditions with light easterly winds and minimal precipitation risk.**
Subtropical high pressure and typical early-autumn solar heating support afternoon peaks near 32°C, consistent with historical September averages of roughly 30–31°C and recent model runs showing stable steering patterns without significant moisture influx or cloud cover to suppress temperatures. Official and ensemble guidance (including updates from Chinese meteorological services and international providers as of September 16) cluster tightly around this range, with limited spread that reduces the chance of outliers above 34°C or below 30°C.
Traders appear to weight the consensus 32°C outcome most heavily, followed closely by 31°C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in short-range forecasts and the low likelihood of rapid changes before the observation window closes. Upcoming local observations and any final model updates on the morning of September 17 could still shift probabilities modestly within the central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,543End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and observational data from multiple meteorological sources indicate a likely daily maximum of 31–33°C in Shenzhen on September 17, 2026, under mostly sunny or partly cloudy conditions with light easterly winds and minimal precipitation risk.** Subtropical high pressure and typical early-autumn solar heating support afternoon peaks near 32°C, consistent with historical September averages of roughly 30–31°C and recent model runs showing stable steering patterns without significant moisture influx or cloud cover to suppress temperatures. Official and ensemble guidance (including updates from Chinese meteorological services and international providers as of September 16) cluster tightly around this range, with limited spread that reduces the chance of outliers above 34°C or below 30°C. Traders appear to weight the consensus 32°C outcome most heavily, followed closely by 31°C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in short-range forecasts and the low likelihood of rapid changes before the observation window closes. Upcoming local observations and any final model updates on the morning of September 17 could still shift probabilities modestly within the central outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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