Recent official forecasts for Shenzhen on September 16, 2026, from Chinese meteorological sources indicate partly cloudy conditions with highs centered around 31–32°C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 30°C and 32°C. Subtropical monsoon influences bring elevated humidity near 70–85% that moderates daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and light easterly winds determine peak insolation and whether afternoon temperatures reach or exceed 32°C. Model runs show minor divergence based on timing of any scattered showers or breaks in cloud, consistent with historical late-September baselines near 31°C. Traders are weighting the balance of these atmospheric variables against the resolution criteria of the official daily maximum from the primary Shenzhen station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 16?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 16?
31°C 29%
30°C 24%
32°C 22%
33°C 14%
NEW
$28,054 Vol.
NEW
$28,054 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
6%
29°C
11%
30°C
24%
31°C
29%
32°C
22%
33°C
14%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 29%
30°C 24%
32°C 22%
33°C 14%
NEW
$28,054 Vol.
NEW
$28,054 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
$2,544 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$399 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$3,049 Vol.
6%
29°C
$2,312 Vol.
11%
30°C
$1,897 Vol.
24%
31°C
$2,545 Vol.
29%
32°C
$4,843 Vol.
22%
33°C
$8,240 Vol.
14%
34°C
$1,540 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$467 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts for Shenzhen on September 16, 2026, from Chinese meteorological sources indicate partly cloudy conditions with highs centered around 31–32°C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 30°C and 32°C. Subtropical monsoon influences bring elevated humidity near 70–85% that moderates daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and light easterly winds determine peak insolation and whether afternoon temperatures reach or exceed 32°C. Model runs show minor divergence based on timing of any scattered showers or breaks in cloud, consistent with historical late-September baselines near 31°C. Traders are weighting the balance of these atmospheric variables against the resolution criteria of the official daily maximum from the primary Shenzhen station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$28,054End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts for Shenzhen on September 16, 2026, from Chinese meteorological sources indicate partly cloudy conditions with highs centered around 31–32°C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 30°C and 32°C. Subtropical monsoon influences bring elevated humidity near 70–85% that moderates daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and light easterly winds determine peak insolation and whether afternoon temperatures reach or exceed 32°C. Model runs show minor divergence based on timing of any scattered showers or breaks in cloud, consistent with historical late-September baselines near 31°C. Traders are weighting the balance of these atmospheric variables against the resolution criteria of the official daily maximum from the primary Shenzhen station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,054End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts for Shenzhen on September 16, 2026, from Chinese meteorological sources indicate partly cloudy conditions with highs centered around 31–32°C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 30°C and 32°C. Subtropical monsoon influences bring elevated humidity near 70–85% that moderates daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and light easterly winds determine peak insolation and whether afternoon temperatures reach or exceed 32°C. Model runs show minor divergence based on timing of any scattered showers or breaks in cloud, consistent with historical late-September baselines near 31°C. Traders are weighting the balance of these atmospheric variables against the resolution criteria of the official daily maximum from the primary Shenzhen station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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