Recent forecasts from multiple models point to a maximum temperature of 29–30°C in Madrid on September 16, driven by a shift to northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating after warmer conditions on the 15th. Official monitoring shows this aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C (46%) and 29°C (32.5%), as afternoon highs are projected near 29–30°C with low humidity and light precipitation chances. These values sit above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.4°C for the date but remain well below historical extremes near 34°C. Updated model runs and wind pattern analyses continue to support limited upside risk for 31°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 16?
30°C 37%
29°C 34%
31°C 20%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
5%
28°C
6%
29°C
34%
30°C
37%
31°C
20%
32°C
5%
33°C
4%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 37%
29°C 34%
31°C 20%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$4 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$0 Vol.
6%
29°C
$11 Vol.
34%
30°C
$502 Vol.
37%
31°C
$127 Vol.
20%
32°C
$5 Vol.
5%
33°C
$5 Vol.
4%
34°C
$5 Vol.
2%
35°C
$29 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$4 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models point to a maximum temperature of 29–30°C in Madrid on September 16, driven by a shift to northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating after warmer conditions on the 15th. Official monitoring shows this aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C (46%) and 29°C (32.5%), as afternoon highs are projected near 29–30°C with low humidity and light precipitation chances. These values sit above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.4°C for the date but remain well below historical extremes near 34°C. Updated model runs and wind pattern analyses continue to support limited upside risk for 31°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$691End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models point to a maximum temperature of 29–30°C in Madrid on September 16, driven by a shift to northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating after warmer conditions on the 15th. Official monitoring shows this aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C (46%) and 29°C (32.5%), as afternoon highs are projected near 29–30°C with low humidity and light precipitation chances. These values sit above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.4°C for the date but remain well below historical extremes near 34°C. Updated model runs and wind pattern analyses continue to support limited upside risk for 31°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$691End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models point to a maximum temperature of 29–30°C in Madrid on September 16, driven by a shift to northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating after warmer conditions on the 15th. Official monitoring shows this aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C (46%) and 29°C (32.5%), as afternoon highs are projected near 29–30°C with low humidity and light precipitation chances. These values sit above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.4°C for the date but remain well below historical extremes near 34°C. Updated model runs and wind pattern analyses continue to support limited upside risk for 31°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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