Clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly winds are sustaining a warming trend across central Spain, with official forecasts from multiple models converging on a Madrid high of 33–35 °C for September 14. Recent runs show daytime maxima climbing from 31–32 °C on the 12th–13th toward 33–34 °C, consistent with the historical late-summer pattern but elevated relative to the 26.8 °C September 14 average. Minimal cloud cover and dry air support efficient daytime heating, while the absence of frontal systems or significant wind shifts reduces downside risk. Ensemble guidance leaves limited room for 36 °C or higher, keeping the 34 °C outcome as the clearest market favorite and 35 °C as the main alternative if afternoon temperatures edge higher than currently projected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
34°C 56%
35°C 31%
33°C 15%
37°C 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
15%
34°C
56%
35°C
31%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 56%
35°C 31%
33°C 15%
37°C 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
29°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
30°C
$4 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C
$0 Vol.
1%
33°C
$35 Vol.
15%
34°C
$159 Vol.
56%
35°C
$659 Vol.
31%
36°C
$10 Vol.
1%
37°C
$5 Vol.
1%
38°C
$30 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$25 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly winds are sustaining a warming trend across central Spain, with official forecasts from multiple models converging on a Madrid high of 33–35 °C for September 14. Recent runs show daytime maxima climbing from 31–32 °C on the 12th–13th toward 33–34 °C, consistent with the historical late-summer pattern but elevated relative to the 26.8 °C September 14 average. Minimal cloud cover and dry air support efficient daytime heating, while the absence of frontal systems or significant wind shifts reduces downside risk. Ensemble guidance leaves limited room for 36 °C or higher, keeping the 34 °C outcome as the clearest market favorite and 35 °C as the main alternative if afternoon temperatures edge higher than currently projected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$933End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly winds are sustaining a warming trend across central Spain, with official forecasts from multiple models converging on a Madrid high of 33–35 °C for September 14. Recent runs show daytime maxima climbing from 31–32 °C on the 12th–13th toward 33–34 °C, consistent with the historical late-summer pattern but elevated relative to the 26.8 °C September 14 average. Minimal cloud cover and dry air support efficient daytime heating, while the absence of frontal systems or significant wind shifts reduces downside risk. Ensemble guidance leaves limited room for 36 °C or higher, keeping the 34 °C outcome as the clearest market favorite and 35 °C as the main alternative if afternoon temperatures edge higher than currently projected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$933End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly winds are sustaining a warming trend across central Spain, with official forecasts from multiple models converging on a Madrid high of 33–35 °C for September 14. Recent runs show daytime maxima climbing from 31–32 °C on the 12th–13th toward 33–34 °C, consistent with the historical late-summer pattern but elevated relative to the 26.8 °C September 14 average. Minimal cloud cover and dry air support efficient daytime heating, while the absence of frontal systems or significant wind shifts reduces downside risk. Ensemble guidance leaves limited room for 36 °C or higher, keeping the 34 °C outcome as the clearest market favorite and 35 °C as the main alternative if afternoon temperatures edge higher than currently projected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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