Recent forecast models and observational data positioned the lowest temperature in São Paulo on September 19 around 13–17 °C, driving the market-implied odds for 17 °C, 15 °C, 14 °C, and 16 °C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90 %, and light northeasterly winds limited overnight radiative cooling, while September 2026’s cooler-than-average pattern—already 7–8 °C below long-term norms with record early-month rainfall—favored these mid-range outcomes. Historical September minima average 12–15 °C, providing context for why extremes below 12 °C or above 18 °C carried low implied probability. Updated station readings and model consensus on the 19th–20th reinforced trader focus on this narrow band ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 19?
14°C 94%
15°C 94%
12°C 18%
11°C or below 10%
$808 Vol.
$808 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
14°C 94%
15°C 94%
12°C 18%
11°C or below 10%
$808 Vol.
$808 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
No
12°C
$0 Vol.
No
13°C
$0 Vol.
No
14°C
$15 Vol.
No
15°C
$15 Vol.
No
16°C
$319 Vol.
No
17°C
$118 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$37 Vol.
No
19°C
$42 Vol.
No
20°C
$31 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$231 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models and observational data positioned the lowest temperature in São Paulo on September 19 around 13–17 °C, driving the market-implied odds for 17 °C, 15 °C, 14 °C, and 16 °C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90 %, and light northeasterly winds limited overnight radiative cooling, while September 2026’s cooler-than-average pattern—already 7–8 °C below long-term norms with record early-month rainfall—favored these mid-range outcomes. Historical September minima average 12–15 °C, providing context for why extremes below 12 °C or above 18 °C carried low implied probability. Updated station readings and model consensus on the 19th–20th reinforced trader focus on this narrow band ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$808End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models and observational data positioned the lowest temperature in São Paulo on September 19 around 13–17 °C, driving the market-implied odds for 17 °C, 15 °C, 14 °C, and 16 °C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90 %, and light northeasterly winds limited overnight radiative cooling, while September 2026’s cooler-than-average pattern—already 7–8 °C below long-term norms with record early-month rainfall—favored these mid-range outcomes. Historical September minima average 12–15 °C, providing context for why extremes below 12 °C or above 18 °C carried low implied probability. Updated station readings and model consensus on the 19th–20th reinforced trader focus on this narrow band ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$808End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecast models and observational data positioned the lowest temperature in São Paulo on September 19 around 13–17 °C, driving the market-implied odds for 17 °C, 15 °C, 14 °C, and 16 °C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90 %, and light northeasterly winds limited overnight radiative cooling, while September 2026’s cooler-than-average pattern—already 7–8 °C below long-term norms with record early-month rainfall—favored these mid-range outcomes. Historical September minima average 12–15 °C, providing context for why extremes below 12 °C or above 18 °C carried low implied probability. Updated station readings and model consensus on the 19th–20th reinforced trader focus on this narrow band ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions