Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate mostly cloudy skies over Amsterdam on September 22 with light westerly winds and high temperatures likely centering on 19–21°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds. These conditions reflect a weak pressure gradient that limits strong advection while variable cloud cover modulates surface heating compared to the seasonal average high near 18°C. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on exact cloud persistence and any late-day clearing, with official KNMI guidance and updated model runs expected to refine the range before resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty in short-range temperature prediction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 22?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 22?
20°C 37%
21°C 32%
19°C 28%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
15°C or below
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
7%
19°C
28%
20°C
37%
21°C
32%
22°C
6%
23°C
11%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 37%
21°C 32%
19°C 28%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$136 Vol.
28%
20°C
$12 Vol.
37%
21°C
$10 Vol.
32%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate mostly cloudy skies over Amsterdam on September 22 with light westerly winds and high temperatures likely centering on 19–21°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds. These conditions reflect a weak pressure gradient that limits strong advection while variable cloud cover modulates surface heating compared to the seasonal average high near 18°C. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on exact cloud persistence and any late-day clearing, with official KNMI guidance and updated model runs expected to refine the range before resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty in short-range temperature prediction.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$158End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate mostly cloudy skies over Amsterdam on September 22 with light westerly winds and high temperatures likely centering on 19–21°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds. These conditions reflect a weak pressure gradient that limits strong advection while variable cloud cover modulates surface heating compared to the seasonal average high near 18°C. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on exact cloud persistence and any late-day clearing, with official KNMI guidance and updated model runs expected to refine the range before resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty in short-range temperature prediction.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$158End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate mostly cloudy skies over Amsterdam on September 22 with light westerly winds and high temperatures likely centering on 19–21°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds. These conditions reflect a weak pressure gradient that limits strong advection while variable cloud cover modulates surface heating compared to the seasonal average high near 18°C. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on exact cloud persistence and any late-day clearing, with official KNMI guidance and updated model runs expected to refine the range before resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty in short-range temperature prediction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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