Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models project a high near 99°F for Austin on September 22, with most guidance clustering in the upper 90s amid partly to mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and low precipitation chances. This consensus underpins the market's leading probabilities for 96-97°F and 98-99°F outcomes. Afternoon convection or increased cloud cover could trim peak readings by a degree or two, while stronger insolation under clear conditions supports the upper end; historical September extremes above 100°F remain possible but uncommon under the current pattern. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 21 will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 22?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 22?
96-97°F 43%
98-99°F 36%
94-95°F 16%
90-91°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
87°F or below
4%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
7%
94-95°F
16%
96-97°F
43%
98-99°F
36%
100-101°F
7%
102-103°F
3%
104-105°F
3%
106°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 43%
98-99°F 36%
94-95°F 16%
90-91°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
87°F or below
$0 Vol.
4%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$24 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$20 Vol.
7%
94-95°F
$13 Vol.
16%
96-97°F
$660 Vol.
43%
98-99°F
$33 Vol.
36%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
7%
102-103°F
$26 Vol.
3%
104-105°F
$57 Vol.
3%
106°F or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models project a high near 99°F for Austin on September 22, with most guidance clustering in the upper 90s amid partly to mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and low precipitation chances. This consensus underpins the market's leading probabilities for 96-97°F and 98-99°F outcomes. Afternoon convection or increased cloud cover could trim peak readings by a degree or two, while stronger insolation under clear conditions supports the upper end; historical September extremes above 100°F remain possible but uncommon under the current pattern. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 21 will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$943End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models project a high near 99°F for Austin on September 22, with most guidance clustering in the upper 90s amid partly to mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and low precipitation chances. This consensus underpins the market's leading probabilities for 96-97°F and 98-99°F outcomes. Afternoon convection or increased cloud cover could trim peak readings by a degree or two, while stronger insolation under clear conditions supports the upper end; historical September extremes above 100°F remain possible but uncommon under the current pattern. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 21 will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$943End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models project a high near 99°F for Austin on September 22, with most guidance clustering in the upper 90s amid partly to mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and low precipitation chances. This consensus underpins the market's leading probabilities for 96-97°F and 98-99°F outcomes. Afternoon convection or increased cloud cover could trim peak readings by a degree or two, while stronger insolation under clear conditions supports the upper end; historical September extremes above 100°F remain possible but uncommon under the current pattern. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 21 will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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