Forecast models from sources including NOAA-aligned and regional meteorological services indicate a maximum temperature near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on September 21 under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity levels typical of late Mediterranean summer. These conditions produce modest daytime heating without strong advection or clear-sky amplification, aligning with climatological norms of 28–30°C for the date and supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 52.5% for 31°C and 28.5% for 30°C. Limited model spread and absence of frontal systems or Saharan air intrusions keep higher outcomes (32°C+) at under 10% each, while cooler thresholds remain improbable absent unexpected cooling. Updated runs ahead of peak heating hours will refine the final reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 21?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 21?
31°C 53%
30°C 29%
32°C 11.9%
27°C or below 4.2%
NEW
$39,376 Vol.
NEW
$39,376 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
27°C or below
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
29%
31°C
53%
32°C
12%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 53%
30°C 29%
32°C 11.9%
27°C or below 4.2%
NEW
$39,376 Vol.
NEW
$39,376 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
27°C or below
$7,134 Vol.
4%
28°C
$3,406 Vol.
2%
29°C
$2,905 Vol.
2%
30°C
$7,753 Vol.
29%
31°C
$7,773 Vol.
53%
32°C
$4,703 Vol.
12%
33°C
$2,468 Vol.
2%
34°C
$612 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,248 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,337 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$36 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including NOAA-aligned and regional meteorological services indicate a maximum temperature near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on September 21 under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity levels typical of late Mediterranean summer. These conditions produce modest daytime heating without strong advection or clear-sky amplification, aligning with climatological norms of 28–30°C for the date and supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 52.5% for 31°C and 28.5% for 30°C. Limited model spread and absence of frontal systems or Saharan air intrusions keep higher outcomes (32°C+) at under 10% each, while cooler thresholds remain improbable absent unexpected cooling. Updated runs ahead of peak heating hours will refine the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$39,376End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including NOAA-aligned and regional meteorological services indicate a maximum temperature near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on September 21 under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity levels typical of late Mediterranean summer. These conditions produce modest daytime heating without strong advection or clear-sky amplification, aligning with climatological norms of 28–30°C for the date and supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 52.5% for 31°C and 28.5% for 30°C. Limited model spread and absence of frontal systems or Saharan air intrusions keep higher outcomes (32°C+) at under 10% each, while cooler thresholds remain improbable absent unexpected cooling. Updated runs ahead of peak heating hours will refine the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,376End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including NOAA-aligned and regional meteorological services indicate a maximum temperature near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on September 21 under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity levels typical of late Mediterranean summer. These conditions produce modest daytime heating without strong advection or clear-sky amplification, aligning with climatological norms of 28–30°C for the date and supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 52.5% for 31°C and 28.5% for 30°C. Limited model spread and absence of frontal systems or Saharan air intrusions keep higher outcomes (32°C+) at under 10% each, while cooler thresholds remain improbable absent unexpected cooling. Updated runs ahead of peak heating hours will refine the final reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions