Recent ensemble and deterministic model runs from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with light northeasterly flow and mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies supporting a Milan maximum near 28–29 °C on September 21. Limited daytime heating from increased cloud cover and modest boundary-layer mixing keep the upper end of the distribution capped, while clear intervals in some solutions allow brief peaks near 30 °C. Low precipitation probability and seasonal Po Valley warmth provide the baseline, but small differences in timing of any clearing or wind shifts create the narrow spread reflected in trader positioning between the 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes. Updated midday model guidance on September 20 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 21?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 21?
30°C 41%
29°C 33%
28°C 13%
31°C or higher 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
13%
29°C
33%
30°C
41%
31°C or higher
12%
30°C 41%
29°C 33%
28°C 13%
31°C or higher 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
21°C or below
$1,055 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,736 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$110 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$340 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$54 Vol.
1%
27°C
$108 Vol.
3%
28°C
$445 Vol.
13%
29°C
$458 Vol.
33%
30°C
$692 Vol.
41%
31°C or higher
$175 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble and deterministic model runs from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with light northeasterly flow and mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies supporting a Milan maximum near 28–29 °C on September 21. Limited daytime heating from increased cloud cover and modest boundary-layer mixing keep the upper end of the distribution capped, while clear intervals in some solutions allow brief peaks near 30 °C. Low precipitation probability and seasonal Po Valley warmth provide the baseline, but small differences in timing of any clearing or wind shifts create the narrow spread reflected in trader positioning between the 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes. Updated midday model guidance on September 20 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,298End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble and deterministic model runs from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with light northeasterly flow and mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies supporting a Milan maximum near 28–29 °C on September 21. Limited daytime heating from increased cloud cover and modest boundary-layer mixing keep the upper end of the distribution capped, while clear intervals in some solutions allow brief peaks near 30 °C. Low precipitation probability and seasonal Po Valley warmth provide the baseline, but small differences in timing of any clearing or wind shifts create the narrow spread reflected in trader positioning between the 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes. Updated midday model guidance on September 20 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,298End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble and deterministic model runs from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with light northeasterly flow and mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies supporting a Milan maximum near 28–29 °C on September 21. Limited daytime heating from increased cloud cover and modest boundary-layer mixing keep the upper end of the distribution capped, while clear intervals in some solutions allow brief peaks near 30 °C. Low precipitation probability and seasonal Po Valley warmth provide the baseline, but small differences in timing of any clearing or wind shifts create the narrow spread reflected in trader positioning between the 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes. Updated midday model guidance on September 20 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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